Investors Pull Out of Mutual Funds

If this trend continues, and US corporations continue to scale back on their stock buybacks, look for another slump in US stock prices this quarter. Right now the stock market is likely being sustained by hedge fund buying from resurgence in the carry trade. Once that let's up, the thinness in the equity market will be set up for an event driven plunge.

Investors pull out of mutual funds
By Deborah Brewster in New York
Financial Times
Published: April 27 2008 22:26

All but one of the 25 largest US mutual fund managers saw their long-term assets fall in the first quarter, as returns dived and investors pulled out of funds.

In the worst start to a year for more than a decade, most money managers had retail outflows, and even stalwarts such as American Funds and Vanguard suffered a drop in assets, of 6.6 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively.

Pimco, the bond manager, was the only one to show a rise in retail assets, according to Financial Research Corporation and industry estimates. Pimco’s Total Return fund had an inflow of $9bn in the three months to March.

The trend is likely to worry economists, because it suggests the credit turmoil is hurting the confidence of mainstream investors. That, in turn, could dampen activity among consumers in the months ahead, since falling investment sentiment is often associated with muted household spending levels.

However, the fall also marks a fresh blow for the financial industry, because mutual fund managers typically make money by charging a percentage of assets – meaning that profits in the industry fall when assets decline.

Last week, a group of publicly traded asset managers announced bleak quarterly results. Affiliated Managers Group, which holds stakes in 26 mutual and hedge fund companies, reported a quarterly profit fall for the first time in five years, with outflows of $8.4bn in the quarter.

Big institutional fund groups – such as AllianceBernstein, a unit of French insurance group Axa – likewise showed asset falls.

One senior industry executive said: “This is the worst I have seen for a long time, the industry-wide outflows, and unfortunately I don’t think it is a short-term situation. The days of domestic [US] equity funds driving profits for us, that could be gone.”

Retail and institutional investors pulled $100bn from US, European and Japanese equity funds during the quarter, according to Strategic Insight.

The trend is accelerating a shift in the money management industry, as investors move away from equity funds, which have been the industry’s profit mainstay, towards either low-margin options such as short-term cash and indexed funds, or high- margin alternative investments such as hedge funds, private equity and hard assets.

Long-term assets do not include money market funds, which have seen big inflows. Several money managers, such as Fidelity, have large money market funds which are offsetting their outflows, although money market funds are low-margin products and do not provide long-term investor loyalty. Fidelity had a drop of long-term assets of close to 10 per cent for the quarter, as investors continued to pull funds from the former market leader despite a lift in performance in its funds.