28 April 2008

WWBD: What Will Bernanke Do on Wednesday 30 April?


It would be hard to say that the Wall Street banks are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady given the results of today's Treasury auction. Although they could hold the headline rate steady, and just continue to ignore their target and price debt well below that in their myriad interest rate welfare programs for the hedge funds aka Wall Street banks.

And just why didn't Treasury take any of those higher bids? Repugnant collateral offered? Stuff even Timmy at the Fed wouldn't touch as well? LOL.

This looks more like a capitalization problem, as in the lack thereof of quality capital and a surfeit of off the books rubbish, than a liquidity problem. A basic insolvency scenario.

Homeowners may be sitting on overpriced houses, but the banks are sitting on a mountain over overpriced and overrated debt instruments that they will not confess to or write off more aggressively.

All that cutting rates from here will accomplish will be to try and bury the problem under a carpet of inflated paper, hoping that the stench of rotten debt does not permeate the markets.

Remember all those snide comments that US economists made about Japanese banks and their unwillingness to write down bad debts in the 1990s?