Home Sales Confirm that the US Is Now in Recession

There should be no doubt that we are in a recession. Here is more confirmation. There is some room for questioning whether it started in the first quarter of 2008 or earlier. The government's distortion of inflation information makes precise determination difficult because it tends to insufficiently deflate GDP numbers.

The question now is the depth and duration. Wall Street and the Feds will deny we are in recession until they think we are well into it and then start calling bottom.

We believe strongly that the worst of this downturn is yet to come, although we might see some relief if oil prices sell off sharply. We don't see what will cause that however. 'Hope' is not a trading plan.