18 September 2008

Oversold Indicators


The equity market was very short term oversold, as one could see from the McClellan Oscillator, and the sentiment chart shown below.

In the sentiment chart the top graph is the Bullish Percent Index with moving averages which is used for picking tops and bottoms. The middle chart is just the SP500 with Bollinger bands showing statistical variation at extremes, and most important is the bottom section which is the NYSE Highs and Lows. This almost never fails to flag oversold conditions. It does not call bottom, but does indicate oversold very well especially if the McClellan Oscillator confirms it.

Its not clear to us that a bottom has been made despite the moonshot after hours on the euphoria that the Federal government will wave a printing press and make our problems all go away.