21 October 2008

How High Will the Dollar Go?

Let's call this one "Your Host Exhibits His Falliblity" and general inability to see the future. Its a good reminder to all of us, of how little we really 'know.'

This is an email sent in response to a question "How high will the Dollar rally? Give us a best guess."

Who can know these things with any certainty? As guesses go this is probably as good as any.

Tell me if the European banks are stabilizing and are no longer starving for dollars, and that there is a meaningful decline in the TED and LIBOR$ and the top in the dollar will be easier to project.

Its hard to say because I don't have the latest data on the Banks balances in europe from BIS.

For my best guess I have to go to the charts. Part of me says it tops this week, but I won't bet on it.

The charts alone call the top around 85. Currencies overshoot. That's why I cannot
be more precise, especially since we are in a short squeeze unrelated to fundamentals.

So I would estimate just on gut instinct and charting that we probably topped about 30 minutes ago, at 84.263,
but might continue on to test 85ish. and mess around there until this clears up. I'd like to see LIBOR$ and TED
confirm this by dropping like a rock. LOL. Then I might bet on it.