21 October 2008

The SP 500 May be in a Cascading Waterfall Decline With a Bottom around 444

US equities as represented by the SP 500 are in a cascading waterfall decline that may not reach a genuine bottom until it reaches 640. If the US dollar starts falling with stocks and Treasuries we may see a capital flight that sets up a decline that may not bottom until the SP reaches 444, with high volatility and sharp rallies along the way. The rally from the final bottom will be tentative and slowly expansive with a modest slope.