ECB to Consider Rate Cut at its Thursday Meeting

The European Central Bank will be meeting tomorrow to consider a change in the Euro interest rate target.

The market widely expects a 50 basis point cut from 2.5% to 2.0%, which is still at a substantial premium to the US interest rate range of 0 to .25%.

Yesterday rumours of a deeper 100 basis point rate cut swept the trading desks and roiled the Euro/Dollar cross taking it down below support at 1.32. This provided a lift to the euro-heavy Dollar DX Index.

There is key support for the euro at 1.30. If Trichet holds the line at 50 basis points and does not signal rate cuts commensurate with the aggressive quantitative easing of the US Fed we would expect the euro to a few more sparks for the week, in addition to the JPM and Citi earnings reports.


Wall Street Journal Europe
ECB Expected to Cut Rates as Inflation Worries Ease
By NINA KOEPPEN
JANUARY 13, 2009, 6:15 P.M.

FRANKFURT -- Most economists say they believe the European Central Bank will continue with its monetary easing campaign and cut interest rates by half a percentage point Thursday to stem the risk of a deepening recession in the euro zone, although policy makers have given no clear signal about their decision.

Thirty-four of 42 private-sector banks polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the ECB to cut the key policy rate to 2% from 2.5% currently. The ECB has already lowered interest rates by 175 basis points ...