19 February 2009

The SP 500 and Short Term Indicators

The short term indicators are getting stretched to the downside, and the other narrower indices are approaching their own support levels.

Perhaps a techinical bounce at some point, but no higher than overhead resistance. A stairstep decline such as this can be quite damaging, and often will continue until it finds strong support, a footing and a V bottom. It may require a plunge, otherwise it just keeps bleeding.

The SP 500 seems likely to test the prior low at 741. We may get a legitimate double bottom. The overhead resistance will cap any purely technical bounces. That is how we will tell them apart.

The McClellan Oscillator is getting overextended to the downside.

This has 'plunge to a bottom' written on it. But we might just continue to slowly bleed.