16 March 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3:45 PM


The rally is looking a bit toppy but its not dead yet.

Watch the changing slopes of the support and resistance channels. If they keep rolling over and the SP breaks that key support at 740 it could be a real sleigh ride lower back down to 700.

The VIX was elevated all day, even at the high, so there is your 'tell' in addition to the shift in the trend channel to a softer slope.

Chances are they dump the market overnight if that is what is going to happen. But until there is a break through 740 this is just a pullback. We'll have to consult with other short term indicators to see if this is a top, or just a bear trap pullback.