China Takes A Big Step Forward in Monetary Policy

This news was largely overlooked by the worse than expected US payrolls report, which dampened hopes of a quick economic recovery, a sentiment encouraged by some but certainly not realistic to anyone looking closely at the numbers. I think that little propaganda sound byte served primarily to apply some primer for the end of quarter paint job in US equities.

Despite its strength today as stocks fall and the boys cash in after their most recent pump operation, the dollar is going to be taken down a peg, so to speak. It is a long term trend that is still well in place despite this bear market rally.

How much further? The DX index is increasingly unsatisfying as a measure, and the manipulation of the gold and silver price by a handful of banks who are unbelievably short the metals on paper renders them less reliable.

But another 20% decline from here is where our charts would indicate the dollar is headed overall against the DX.

China Allows Yuan Trade Settlement, Offers Tax Breaks
By Bob Chen and David Yong
July 2, 2009 09:44 EDT

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- China will allow companies to use the yuan to settle cross-border trade and let them keep their entitlement to export tax rebates, seeking to reduce the reliance of importers and exporters on the U.S. dollar.

The People’s Bank of China will encourage banks to offer yuan settlement services from today, the bank said in the regulations published on its Web site. Transactions inside China will take place in Shanghai and four cities in southern Guangdong province, including Guangzhou and Shenzhen, while those outside China will occur in Hong Kong, Macau and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, it said.

“It’s China’s first step to make the yuan global,” said Shi Lei, an analyst in Beijing at Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s largest foreign-currency trader. “It will protect exporters from swings in exchange rates and boost the yuan’s role in the world currency system.”

China is promoting greater use of the yuan in international trade and finance after Premier Wen Jiabao in March expressed concern that a weakening dollar will cause losses on the country’s holdings of U.S. assets. A Chinese Foreign Ministry official said today he hoped the U.S. currency would remain stable, while reiterating a call for diversification of the international monetary system.

“Companies in China and neighboring countries are facing relatively huge risks of exchange-rate fluctuations because of big swings in the U.S. dollar, the euro and other major settlement currencies,” today’s central bank statement said.

First Settlement

Asean comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said on June 29 he hopes the first yuan settlement transactions will start this month after signing an agreement with People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan. Companies currently have to convert yuan into dollars or other currencies to settle international trade.

“Hong Kong will be the natural place for arranging these transactions,” Yam said in a statement today. “This is the key to the maintenance of the status of Hong Kong as an international finance centre.”

Tax authorities are working on the proposed rebates for exports settled in yuan, the central bank said. Bank of China Ltd. will be the clearing bank in Hong Kong and Macau.

Stability, Convenience

About 50 percent of Hong Kong’s trade with China may be settled in yuan after the program starts, Stanley Wong, deputy general manager at Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (Asia) Ltd., the Hong Kong unit of China’s biggest bank, said in an interview on May 5. Hong Kong companies want to use yuan in trade because it will probably appreciate against the U.S. dollar more than 3 percent every year, he said.

“We hope companies will like to use yuan because of its stable value and convenience,” People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Su Ning said in an interview with state-owned China National Radio today.

The yuan has strengthened 21 percent against the U.S. currency since a dollar peg was scrapped in 2005. China has limited the yuan’s advance in the past year as a stronger currency makes its goods less competitive overseas at a time when economic growth this year could slow to 7.2 percent from 9 percent in 2008, according to World Bank forecasts.

Currency Swaps

The People’s Bank of China has agreed to provide a total of 650 billion yuan ($95 billion) to Argentina, Belarus, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea through so-called currency- swaps to expand the yuan’s usage. China and Brazil in May began studying a proposal to move away from the dollar for trade settlement and use yuan and reais instead.

Malaysia’s government has been calling for reduced dependence on the dollar for “some years” and now that China is supporting yuan settlement it is worth considering, said Tan King Tai, an executive director at Pensonic Holdings Bhd., a manufacturer of household electrical appliances in the northern Malaysian state of Penang that sources parts from China.

“The dollar has become quite volatile and speculative in some ways,” he said. “If the yuan can be stable, it will help companies with their financial budgeting.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Chen in Hong Kong at bchen45@bloomberg.net