SP Futures Daily Chart

Different Day, Same Drill.

Neither snow, nor rain, nor weaker than expected ADP reports shall keep these bubbles from their appointed highs and the end of month paint job.

It will be interesting to see how the trade goes tomorrow with traders squaring up for a three day weekend, especially with the Non-Farm Payrolls data coming out on Friday while the markets are closed in the US.

I suspect that number will come in rather close to my projection of +75,000 despite the weak ADP jobs number. This is a little light of the consensus view which is +190,000. So a number a little north of 100,000 would be a nice compromise for the propeller heads at the BLS to achieve, by revising some prior months. These are miniscule percentage changes in the bigger picture, but this is how irrational the US markets have become.

ADP only tracks real private payroll data, and does not include government employment and imaginary jobs. The Federal government has a large number of workers that have been hired to concduct the Census which is done every ten years. I would think the number will include them with some other government employment. And this month is a little more favorable in its seasonal adjustment, with the next month even moreso.

The market is also edgy because today is the last day of the Fed monetization of mortgage debt. I do not think this is a practical matter so much as psychological in the short term. The Fed will most likely shift its monetization to another area and allow proxies to continue its work.