15 July 2010

Gold Daily Chart, Overhead Resistance, the 50 DMA, and GLD Option Expiry MaxPain

Gold is struggling to overcome some fairly well defended overhead resistance. That much is obvious.

The bullion bears took gold down hard below the 50 Day Moving Average in early July when it was threating to break out through key resistance at 1260, and have been holding it down below that 50 DMA ever since. The price selling is obvious and determined.

Seasonal selling? It does not look anything like selling by motivated investors or actual holders of positions. It does not even look like liquidation under duress.

I think it is more like a trading gambit by the hedge funds, who planned for seasonality in their cross trades with miners and other pairs, and are determined to make it happen. The 50 DMA is a logical place for traders to make their 'goal line stand.'

This could be tied to the option expiration tomorrow in the GLD ETF. This has become a major trading instrument for cross trades in the metal, and is convenient because it has a tenuous relationship to the physical bullion market.

This is important because if it is just hedge funds they are more likely to get stuffed badly and have to scramble to unwind, as compared to a big bullion bank working with the FED, BIS or IMF determined to maintain control of the currency markets.

Gold Spot Daily Chart with 50 DMA

GLD July Options Expiration 'MaxPain'

MaxPain looks like about where it 'should be' going into the expiry.

MaxPain Chart from OptionPain