18 November 2010

Gold and Silver Option Expiration in a Holiday Shortened Week in the US

It's that time again, another option expiration next week on November 23 for the Comex gold and silver options. And it will be a short week because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the states.

Generally the game is for the wiseguys on the exchange to stuff the call options buyers by driving the price below the largest groupings of calls. And if a large number of calls are converted to futures positions they like to take the price down again in the two days following expiration.

But keep in mind that the breakout in the metals was done in an expiration gambit that failed, in which the smart money was caught offsides of a failed attempt to push the price down, and fueled a sharp rally on short covering of their own.

James Turk provides a not dissimilar observation in his own way here, but much more confidently seasoned perhaps than your humble proprietaire.

So let's see what happens.