29 December 2010

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

These are not charts. This is an economic IQ test.
Kitco’s Jon Nadler is today’s most notorious gold bear; and, although Mr. Nadler’s predictions are remarkably consistent, they also have been consistently wrong; but within this consistency lies a clue to tomorrow’s price of gold.

The website www.buygoldco.com kept track of Mr. Nadler’s predictions regarding the future price of gold in 2010. In November 2006, he predicted in 2010 gold would average $800. In October 2008, he predicted gold would be in the low $500 an ounce range in 2010. In January 2010: he predicted “With a view to the three-year average gold price still near $845… In May 2010 (with gold at $1200), He predicted the 2010 price would end [lower]…gold at the $800 per ounce figure. I am not alone in computing such figures. I still think..between $680 and $880. From 2006 to 2010, Nadler predicted the price of gold would be in the low $500s to the high $800s today, a spread of approximately $400, the mean being approximately $700. Based on this data, the apparently unerringly accurate Nadler Gold Predict-O-Meter is as follows:

To accurately predict the future price of gold, investors can take the arithmetic mean of Mr. Nadler’s predictions—then simply double it, i.e. $700 x2 = $1400, a number which, astoundingly, is almost exactly today’s gold price, i.e. $1405, at the end of 2010.

Gold Bears Predicting the Gold Price - Darryl Robert Schoon