21 January 2011

US Dollar Index Drops to Strong, 'Must Hold' Support

Let's see if the euro short squeeze rally has reached its zenith, implying a bottom for the archaically weighted US Dollar Index.

A significant break of support here negates the double bottom formation.

It is not so much that gold and the dollar have moved lower together, but rather, the euro rally took quite a bit of risk buying off gold, at least from the continent. Asia remains a firm buyer and will most likely do so.

When the perception of sovereign risk changes again back from optimisim to gloom, I would expect both the dollar and gold to strengthen. Unless that gloom begins to encompass the buck, and acknowledge the yawning chasm of state and municipal defaults which the Yanks and their ratings agencies are so far blithely avoiding, deflecting the concerns to Europe.

This soft shoe dance that Ben and Timmy have done so far is getting a bit thin.

And it was almost funny to see the Amazing Krugman wagging his printing finger at China over the threat of impending inflation. Physician heal thyself.