17 June 2011

SP 500 Futures Intraday


As can be seen on the chart, and I have marked it in blue for the non-technicians, the SP futures are in a tightening triangle.

The reflects the uncertainty in the market with regard to the Greek (and Irish etc.) default possibilities, as well as the upcoming FOMC decision next Wednesday the 22nd which is likely to reveal the nature of QE3, whatever the Fed may decide to call it.

I think it is more likely to involve a line in the sand promising action, rather than immediate new action itself. The Fed's balance sheet is quite large already. And the markets may test their resolve sooner rather than later.

Less remarked amongst Americans preoccupied with their Weiners is the semi-annual Russell 2000 rebalancing which will occur on Friday, and may drive volatility in individual stocks that are in and out of the club.

Whichever way the market breaks, it should have some impetus behind it since it has been winding up now for nine days.

These are short term things. All the Fed and the Europeans are doing is playing for time with a backdrop of a disordered, struggling economy.