I had to chuckle a little today as the corporate spokesmodels on Bloomberg were reviewing the day's trade, and noted the slump in gold with the VIX spiking and stocks slumping, as out of character. 'Duh, what's up with that?' was the most insightful comment of the day.
So, we have had round one of the post option expiry 'gut check' which I had suggested would occur. It was a little more intense than the chart might suggest, because ordinarily gold would have been rallying hard up to the 1650 level on a day like today. But that was not in the cards as dealt from the bottom of the deck.
So what next? I think gold and silver will consolidate and chop around until the deficit discussion is resolved, one way or the other. And I am still in a very defensive position against a correction because we have come far and fast, and the Wall Street wiseguys just do not have the goods to cover their bets, so they have to continue running their bluffs.
La Douleur back-kissed the key trendline it had just broken, so no strong clue there yet. It still is in a position to rally short term and retake the upper end of the trend. A lot of this depends on short term policy decisions in the States.
But in the long run, paper will deteriorate, because it has nowhere else to go. The end game for the eggheads is a worldwide central bank setting fiscal policy and dictating values under the direction of a few senior pigmen. I don't think they will get it, or at least just yet.
