Charts courtesy of John Williams at Shadowstats.
The first chart shows US Housing Starts since the year 2000.
The second chart shows US Housing Starts since 1945.
“Some economists, when thinking about long memory, are concerned that it undercuts the Efficient Market Hypothesis that prices fully reflect all relevant information; that the random walk is the best metaphor to describe such markets; and that you cannot beat such an unpredictable market. Well, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is no more than that, a hypothesis. Many a grand theory has died under the onslaught of real data.” Benoît B. Mandelbrot