07 October 2011

The US September Non-Farm Payrolls Report in Pictures

A remarkably 'clean' report with the only anomalies being a lower than normal Birth-Death imaginary jobs adjustment from the BLS, which subtracted 43,000 jobs, and a seasonality adjustment that appeared a little on the high side.

An exogenous factor was the addition of 45,000 striking telecommunication workers who returned to their jobs. So the organic jobs growth was weak.

"Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in September, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August. Government employment continued to trend down."

The jobs recovery is there, but very nascent and probably fragile. GDP will tell us much more.