Richard Russell says what is on my mind quite well.
The outlier is the Fed, and a willingness to print to nominal results without regard to the value at risk of the currency.
“I talked with my good friend, Joe Granville, over the weekend, and Joe is as bearish as I’ve ever seen or heard him, based on his OBV volume figures. This checks with my own work and studies.
While fundamentalists scour the news for indications of bullish news, the internals of the stock market continue to deteriorate. Even the action of the stock market is bearish as the market rallies on dull volume but declines on higher volume. Furthermore, rising breadth is narrow on rallies while declining breadth is broad when the market heads down.
I don’t know what more I can do or say to convinced subscribers that we are seeing the resumption of the bear market. This means that we should be OUT of all stocks. As for gold mining stocks, this is a personal choice. In due time, I expect gold to fully express itself with a huge upside blow-off. At that time I expect gold mining stocks to follow, but between now and then gold mining shares will probably be hit like every thing else by the fury of the bear market.
I should add that I am expecting this bear market to be far worse than most people expect or are prepared for. The fact is that I don’t believe that Americans expect any thing more than a temporary spate of difficult times, an annoying patch that should be over in a year or so. This is not what I am expecting or predicting.
Once the Dow breaks under 10,000, I believe that the analysts and the PUBLIC will become frightened and start to cut back on their buying. The newspapers will halt their bullish stance, and a great stillness will envelope that land. That stillness will be the result of shock as it dawns on Americans that they are seeing something far different than what they were expecting.
By the way, the Dow is now trading below its 200-day moving average, which stands at 11,938. The 50-day MA is bearishly below the 200-day MA (50-day is 11,811)."
Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters
