25 January 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Sharp Metals Rally Off the FOMC Policy Statement



The big news today was the FOMC's decision to set an explicit inflation target of 2% using the PCE indicator. Bernanke expressed some of the reasons for choosing PCE rather than the more popularly watched CPI.

Intraday commentary on the Fed's statement is here.

The metals, which had been depressed ahead of the announcement, took off like a rocket, reaching up to overhead resistance as the metal bears scrambled to cover their option expiration trade.

So what next? The rally may be a bit overdone in the short term, and now that the put buyers are washed out the trading desks may take aim at the call option holders in the 1680 to 1700 range.

The last time we had a major failed option expiration like this the metals went on a tear higher that led to the breakout from the infamous 'cup and handle' formation. Let's see if that happens again.

The move by the Fed is more of a stealth bailout of the banks and creditors in the financial sector than it is a remedy for the real economy. The markets are still not efficient or safe, and the economy is being managed for the benefit of the money masters.

So I expect this move by the Fed will merely serve to precipitate further economic damage that will eventually lead to a strong public reaction and constructive change, albeit via a highly troubled and sometimes dangerous path.

Keep an eye on stocks. I'll believe this rally is going to last if they decide to bring out the Facebook IPO which has been parked on the shelf for some time now. Otherwise just watch out for the next wash and rinse. There are few real investors in these markets anymore.