23 February 2012

An Attempt to Inflate Financial Asset Prices and Maintain Negative Real Interest Rates



As you may recall I said early this year that the stock market had the flavor of a 'market operation' on the tape, a conscious effort to inflate asset prices.

If you look at some of the key market charts below, the price action has pretty much been a thrown rope, almost never violating the 15 Day Moving Average.

It has been a while since I have seen a Williams%R pegged to the topside like this with barely a flutter, especially considering all the hijinks going on in Europe.

Let's see. Negative real interest rates, incessant stock market climb. Must be an 'inspiring confidence' sort of thing. Looks almost like the upside of a pyramid scheme. The most artful one I had ever seen started around early in 2004 and did not really end until the crash of 2008.

As the touts and cheerleaders were saying on bubblevision today, better buy them now while they're cheap. Yowza, yowzer, getcher hot stocks and nekkid ladies...

If you want to know why the Fed and Treasury keep the TBTF and their financial harpies at the ratings agencies around, this may be the reason: to implement their global financial policy decisions. How long they can keep it up is another matter. But they are not likely to run out of money, and much of the buying and selling in these equity markets is artificial, the quick action of computers shaving off nickels in a well-tempered instrument.

Maybe that's why they had to smack gold and silver so hard into the end of the year. Otherwise they might have taken off with the stock pumping exercise, broken through upside resistance at 2000 and 40, and threatened to get out of hand, shake up the confidence of the other players, and all that.

But if you look at the SP 500 deflated by oil, either WTI or Brent, its been in a serious nose dive.

No matter how good they want to make this look, its still a paint job, and a fairly thin one at that. But it will probably take some incident, or a key economic report gone bad, to break this nominal uptrend, so wait for it.