03 February 2012

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Flashbangs, Smoke and Mirrors

The markets took off after the 'great' Jobs Number came out.

I provided some significant intraday commentary here, and have added to it at the end of day as well, including a response to the Labor Participation Rate issue and an actual comparison of the pre and post revision numbers.

The bottom line is that looking at month over month changes like this is ludicrous, and almost always in support of some PR or Sales campaign. And in this case it was both: PR for Obama and Sales for the paper pushers. 

Only the trends matter, and certain key data like the median wage, because there is so much 'noise' in the data, much of it self-induced. But you will rarely hear a serious discussion about this from the spokesmodels and the used car salesmen that appear on their shows.  In this at least the financial media in the UK is head and shoulders above the extended infomercials in the States.

The more serious issue is the lack of thoughtful policy discussion that occurs in the US and the way in which the statistics are abused. No wonder the problems linger on and fester.