Gold and silver 'popped' today despite the higher dollar and risk off trade. It happened shortly after I posted the NAV premiums chart, having seen some odd action on the tape, and watching the action closely into the option expiration tomorrow in silver. It is also expiration for copper.
The metals often act oddly around their Comex Option Expirations, depending on a number of factors. If you remember nothing else, remember that. You can get some nice entry and exit points around those days, in the lead up and aftermath.
The fellows who write and trade those options play games against them and with them, make no mistake about it. People who buy options on the retail side are typcially gamblers unless they are hedging.
Sometimes guys who are deeply knowledgeable of one or two indicators get lost in these little events that occur. But you can often spot them in the anomalies in the tape.
One has to watch many things and be open to various possibilities. That is why I do not like to 'predict' so much as calculate probabilities, since one tends to fall in love with their models and forecasts.
That is why I so often like Jim Sinclair's comments. He understands the short term moves for what they are, and treats them accordingly, ie with little regard but keeps his eye on the prize, the primary trend.
Chasing a model that predicts wiggles is a mug's game, wherein you are always chasing 'a better model.' If the model were any good, you certainly would not hear about it on a free web site. And for the most part, the wiseguys make money with practical models but gain their edge by 'cheating' using asymmetric information and stacking the odds in their favor.
And I hope to be in this for money, not a fan club. So sorry, but there are no mechanistically precise models that crank out the future in advance which I can share with you. There are plenty of other fellows who can do that for you, and often for a price.
Do yourself a favor if you are not doing it full time for some reason AND making consistent money and just stop trading for the short term, or reduce your activity significantly. You cannot beat the shenanigans, mispricing of risks, and transaction frictions like commissions.
One can forecast the longer term trends on fundamentals, but that is something else entirely. You have to be prepared to ignore the 'wiggles,' especially in the kinds of markets we have today.
At 58 the gold/silver ratio was a bit stretched against the peoples' metal.
Markets remain edgy about Europe.
End of quarter this week. Let's see how it goes. I remained concerned that some of the bigger wiseguys (JPM) might smack the metals to make their carried losses look smaller for quarter end. It is hard to see that since one does not know their overall net positions in all markets.
June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
July 26 Comex August gold options expiry
July 26 Comex August copper options expiry
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July silver futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July copper futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August E-mini copper futures last trading day
July 31 Comex August gold futures first notice day
July 31 Comex August copper futures first notice day
