22 June 2012

Next Tuesday 26 June Is Silver July Options Expiration - Shenanigans Reminder


Perhaps the reminder is a bit late, and the shenanigans have already occurred.

Although both gold and silver were hit hard around the FOMC meeting announcement, silver has been hit a bit harder.

Most curiously in yesterday's big down day the overall open interest EXPANDED by about 6,000 contract, mostly in the outer months of Sept - Dec. My friend Dave brought this to our attention this morning as Bill and some of the guys were discussing it.
Comex silver o/i went up +6034 contracts yesterday. Sept silver was up +4617, Dec silver up +976. July actually increased +147. This would be unusual for a day like yesterday but also very unusual given the July "contract roll" period is starting.
We did not see a similar expansion in gold open interest.

I cannot help but think that this is related to the July silver option expiration on the Comex next Tuesday and the end of trading.

I also have it in the back of my mind, subject to more data, that there has been an effort to depress the price of silver around the end of quarter as a few certain big shorts seek to make the losses on their silver short positions look a little better. But for now that is speculative.

So, unless the exchange report was incorrect, it is very odd for a large expansion in silver to occur on a huge down day, unless there was something like manipulative shorting.

As always, one must assume the lampreys are riding the momentum trade with the sharks. A hit on metals at the FOMC meeting is a traders' commonplace.

June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
July 26 Comex August gold options expiry
July 26 Comex August copper options expiry
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July silver futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July copper futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August E-mini copper futures last trading day
July 31 Comex August gold futures first notice day
July 31 Comex August copper futures first notice day