The SP 500 December Futures contract is in a fairly obvious symmetrical triangle as noted on the chart below in blue. The triangle is part of an uptrending channel.
Symmetrical triangles are generally continuation patterns, which means that the probability favors the contract breaking to the upside, and continuing to follow the upward trend.
There is a possibility that the price will break down and out of this triangle, and that would be a trend reversal. That possibility is a greater now than it was back in September when we last had a correction within the trend channel because of the shape of the correction now as a triangle. In September it was a fairly well defined bull flag continuation pattern.
I put the odds of continuation at roughly 65-35. For the flag it was 75-25 at least, maybe more like 80-20. I tend to be conservative because of this thin markets and the permissive attitude towards short term price manipulations. The regulatory environment in the US and the UK in particular is a disgrace.
We may likely see a resolution of this on Friday with the Non-Farm Payrolls report, but it may take another full weekend and a few more days to work out. The results of the economic data and interest rate statements before Friday from Europe and the tenor of the US presidential debate will affect this, potentially quite a bit.
I am planning for either outcome.
