The dichotomy in premiums between the Spicer Funds (CEF, GTU) and the Sprott Funds (PHYS,PSLV) is remarkable.
Either the Sprott Funds have now become large and liquid enough to become trading vehicles for the desks, including those who have underwritten the shelf offerings, or investors have become shy given the repeated and somewhat heavy-handed treatment of the expansions. Perhaps a bit of both.
A highly simplified pair trade would be to go long SLV and to short PSLV, for example, to take the premium on PSLV. This would tend to compress the volatility in PSLV into sharp bursts as these trades strengthen and weaken, and then fall apart. The pros can manage the risk in it, but the specs will get something more than the premium handed to them on the breaks. This is one of those 'LTCM trades' that look quite good on paper, and supply some nice gains, with a hidden barb of risk.
Next week is an option expiration in gold and silver bullion futures, and there is a fairly obvious attempt to 'hold the line in price' before then. As I have said, the next big resistance on my charts is in the 1790-1810 area. It is the outer permimeter bears' Maginot Line at 2000-2100.
From a Nov 19 posting:
"The inverse H&S pattern measures to 1810 as a minimum objective. That is also the point at which the handle would be at a breakout to validate the entire cup and handle formation.
I would expect gold to break out and run to that point, with resistance heavier around 1790-1810. There may be some time to actually break out, as the shorts will attempt to hold a strong line there and at the next major objective at 2100 or so, which is the first objective of the cup and handle."
Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December copper options expiry
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex November copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December E-mini copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December copper futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Nymex December palladium futures first notice day
