28 February 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Last Call for February - Ukraine


Gold and silver were under modest pressure much of the day as the February delivery period rolled into the sunset.

Stocks slumped and gold jumped this afternoon when news broke that Russia 'had invaded' the Ukraine.  President Obama will be speaking on this subject at 4:45 PM today.

The Comex warehouse report shows a little offtake. We'll have to see if there is any more listed next week.  We will see what happened to warehouse metals today on next Monday.

The pullback alleviated a short term overbought condition on the charts, and did no technical damage to any formations.

March is a very light month for futures activity. The focus now shifts to the physical markets, primarily in Asia, and to April.

Another winter storm, this one called Titan, will be sweeping across the northeastern US on Monday morning. 

Have a pleasant weekend.




 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - SeeSaw End of Month


Equities managed to shake off a big miss on the GDP revision this morning, it being so old economy.

The SP hit another record today to close out the end of February.

There was a bit of a bobble in the market around 2:45 PM EST as news came out that Russia had 'invaded the Ukraine.'

But stocks shook that off, because at these valuations US equities are in the world, but not of it.

Have a pleasant weekend.







27 February 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Heart of Gold


"The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit...For what avail the plough or sail, or land or life, if freedom fail?"

Ralph Waldo Emerson


"Over the long run, the price of gold approximates the total amount of money in circulation divided by the size of the gold stock. If the market price of gold moves a long way from this level, it may indicate a buying or selling opportunity."

Ray Dalio

That latter quote from Ray Dalio is what is known as 'the fundamentals.' When the price of gold reverts to the mean of its valuation, despite the best efforts of the banking cartel to oppose it, then we are going to see an absolutely mind blowing adjustment of price to market.

It is much better if it happens in stages, rather than in one fell swoop. But then again, it is probably foolish to credit the ruling classes with self-awareness, much less wisdom.   They are environmentally psychopathic, in a world unto themselves.

There was more shuffling around of bullion between the warehouses, but nothing particularly meaningful happened yesterday.  Or today for that matter.  We are in a phony market, a seeming impasse between the bulls and the bears.  But this in only in the market that we can see, or rather, are allowed to see.

When will this end? I think Tolstoy said it this way. "Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold."

A new study indicates that the gold price may have been manipulated by the London fix for a decade or more.   This is in contrast to the pristine price discovery to be found on the Comex, according to a five year study of extremely odd price fluctuations and outsized market positions in the silver market, that was led down a blind alley by a spineless bureaucracy and quietly strangled.

There was intraday commentary titled The Scandal In America That Is Hidden in Plain Sight.

While it is addressed in particular to the States, the same words can certainly apply to most of the English speaking nations.  And much of Europe as well.   They have created that most ironic of remarkable things, a social environment that is hostile to human life.

Powers and principalities, the rulers of the darkness of this world, and wickedness in high places.  C'est la guerre, sans fin. Ainsi soit-il.

Have a pleasant evening.







SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Up, Up, and Away


Unemployment claims came in on the high side this morning.

Stocks rallied on nothing in particular, except perhaps the Fed's willingness to hand the Wall Street financial insiders billions more in money each month for nothing, to use as they please.

Have a pleasant evening.






The Scandal in America That Is Hidden In Plain Sight - Privilege Blindness


“There’s a new isolationism,” Kerry said during a nearly one-hour discussion with a small group of reporters. "We are beginning to behave like a poor nation,” he added, saying some Americans do not perceive the connection between US engagement abroad and the US economy, their own jobs and wider US interests.

The Guardian, John Kerry Slams 'New Isolationism'

Things may seem rosy from your perspective, John, but the sad truth is that far too many people in this country are doing without, doing more with less, too often living on the edge, and are far too often afraid.  They are referred to disparagingly as 'the common 99%',  as takers not makers, and even the 'parasitic 47%,'.   They are what is commonly referred to as 'the people' in the Constitution.

They are being spied on, bullied, repressed, and conned at almost every turn by a foul partnership of big money and power.  They often sacrifice their personal liberties, and send their children to foreign shores to fight in a perpetual war against a loosely defined 'enemy.'

One of the great marvels of the time is how effectively well-funded propaganda campaigns and a captive mainstream media have distorted the peoples' view of reality so that they act as if they are sleep-walking.

An ongoing trend in the US has been a tax code that favors large multinational corporations with loopholes and subsidies that far too often result in an effective tax rate of close to zero, despite booming corporate profits in the face of a long stagnation in median family income and wages. 

The real unemployment numbers are shockingly high, and those jobs that are available are often part time and poorly paid.   Justice is openly administered in ways that give the powerful a free pass on grossly criminal activity, from laundering drug money to financial racketeering. The rigging of prices and markets by powerful interests, and the lack of effective prosecution of such grave abuses of power, is something that seems to be de facto government policy.

This places small private businesses and individuals at a distinct disadvantage with regard to economic viability in the marketplace.  It fosters consolidation and monopoly.  It lends itself to a cynicism that is undermining the conscience of many of those who have sworn oaths of office.  It isolates dissent to corrals and 'free speech zones.'  It breaks up peaceful gatherings of protest with pepper spray, bullets, and clubs.  It pollutes the internet with campaigns of disinformation, and silences the voices of journalists.

It is intertwined with the financialisation of the real economy that is a tool for the redistribution of wealth from the many to the well connected few.  It feeds the corrupting influence of big money on the political landscape.

And often these multinationals are beneficiaries of government spending of tax revenues on procurements, outsourcing, and other initiatives, particularly with regard to infrastructure and defense spending on perpetual and largely discretionary wars.

And lately corporations have been making headway in the courts to receive all the benefits and privileges of personhood, without having to pay the price of citizenship.   War, far from being an occasion of personal loss and privation and risk, is often a beneficial period of significant revenues and greater profits.

The way in which dividends, certain types of executive compensation, and private equity investments are treated for tax purposes merely exacerbates the problem and the ongoing hypocrisy in the trickle down approach to The Recovery.

The partnership between large corporate America, often called the moneyed interests, and the political class is something that is of deep concern to some, but not known nearly enough.  It has been a point of political contention over and over again in US history, and the history of all nations.

If tax reform is on the agenda, closing loopholes, subsidies and government welfare programs for corporate America ought to be a top priority.  But change must come.

We are acting like a poor nation John, even a third world nation, with widespread corruption, declining press freedom, a crumbling infrastructure, and an alarming concentration of power in a few hands, a few powerful families. Both political parties are owned by the same elite class and are essentially the same corporate sponsored products; they are just different brands with different target markets.

And you and yours have made it that way. Welcome to our brave new world.

The following is from Ralph Dillon at Global Financial Data:
"Inevitably, the tax man will cometh…..Except of course, if you are a large multinational corporation. Despite the political banter over who pays and who does not, the 2000s have ushered in an era of corporations avoiding paying taxes. Armed with teams of CPAs and attorneys, these large multinational companies have pushed the limits on how they can avoid paying taxes and have done so quite successfully.

General Electric, one of the largest and most well respected companies in America has been criticized for paying little or nothing on their corporate taxes the last few years. In fact, GE is currently suing the IRS for over 650 million dollars they feel should have been a tax credit instead of a liability that they owe taxes on.

If you look at the S&P 500 members citing effective tax rates of 0%, it is staggering. With names like Broadcom, Verizon Wireless, Public Storage, Seagate Technologies and even News Corp having not paid any taxes in the past twelve months. The list of companies with a 0% effective tax rate is a long one and perhaps one that needs some attention. It just seems odd that we can tax everything in this country but not huge multinational companies that make billions of dollars each year.

Favorable tax codes and massive amounts of lobbying have created corporate welfare in this country and perhaps the time has come to address the inequalities that exist in the tax code.

It is estimated that that there is over 2 trillion dollars in cash sitting in the coffers of corporate America right now. Shareholder activists like Carl Icahn, are forcing companies like Apple to address what they are going to do with the loads of cash they are sitting on.

What’s really interesting to see is that the divergence between corporate profits and tax receipts on that corporate income. In early 2000, we saw a gap that widened and then virtually exploded.

Currently, corporate profits have never been better yet the liability of paying taxes on those profits has stayed flat. It has created the largest divergence the 2 series have had in over 65 years!"


I have written about this on occasion over the years.  You may find prior posts on this subject by clicking on the subject 'Corporate Tax' at the bottom of this posting. Or any of the other subjects as well.

26 February 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Phaeton Descending


"Narcissism falls along the axis of what psychologists call personality disorders, one of a group that includes antisocial, dependent, histrionic, avoidant and borderline personalities.

But by most measures, narcissism is one of the worst, if only because the narcissists themselves are so clueless."

Jeffrey Kluger

As I noted last night in my gold and silver commentary, 'we might get a gutcheck tomorrow...'

And so we did, and it was hard to miss.

Some gold was finally taken off the deliverable inventory at the Comex yesterday.   See how they run.

What is most shocking I think is the utter lack of self-awareness of the ruling class, and the disconnection and disregard which they have for the greater reality of the people of their country and the world.

But, to paraphrase Keats, what will create the most intense surprise is when their souls look out through renovated eyes. Unfortunately their muse is not of the intellect and the light, but the hubris of Phaeton giving itself over to the dark, disordered madness of Dionysus.

There will be torches, but it is not yet clear who will be carrying them.  But it appears that the bonfires will be lit, nevertheless.   See how readily they burn the breadbasket of the Slavs to achieve their ends.

Have a pleasant evening.




...Here Homer with his nervous arms
Strikes the twanging harp of war,
And even the western splendour warms,
While the trumpets sound afar:
But, what creates the most intense surprise,
His soul looks out through renovated eyes.

Then, through thy Temple wide, melodious swells
The sweet majestic tone of Maro's lyre:
The soul delighted on each accent dwells, -
Enraptur'd dwells, - not daring to respire,
The while he tells of grief around a funeral pyre...

John Keats, Ode to Apollo

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Ghosts of Bubbles Past


The New Homes Sales number came in much higher than expected this morning, and so stocks reversed from their initial slump. They rose to challenge the overhead resistance once again, only to fall back down in the afternoon.

Rinse, wash, repeat.

Be careful, because this is a piñata market, shaped like the bubbles past, an elevated construction with the consistency of papier-mâché, at which a crowd of those with the forethought of children are taking their swings, trying to release its hidden riches.

But, alas, this one comes with a plague of Pandora's woes inside.

Have a pleasant evening.





NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Stockman On Crony Capitalism


As I suggested might happen yesterday, the precious metal longs were given a gutcheck today as the price was hit on the NY open.

The housing number this morning was a well-seasonalized canard, from the looks of it.

Below the chart, there is a reprise of Bill Moyers and David Stockman discussing the crony capitalism that is pervasive on the US economic scene, have encompassed both political parties, despite their marketing campaigns and brand differentiation.



25 February 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex Option Expiration - Far From Any Road


There was very little movement in the Comex gold warehouses yesterday.

Gold was a little stronger than silver today, but both settled back close to evens at the close.

The option expiry was quiet, not unexpected for the less consequential March contract. We *might* get a gutcheck on the new longs if there was a significant amount of call options coming in the money.

Have a pleasant evening.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Just Another Day in the Hood with the Hoods


There was a lot of back and forth around key resistance today. I suspect that the wiseguys are waiting for some additional punters to take positions before they flip the switch, unless something untoward happens in the great world of reality.

Have a pleasant evening.





24 February 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Option Expiry Tomorrow - Remembering Baghdad Bob


As a reminder, tomorrow is the option expiration for precious metals on the Comex, for the March contracts.

There was intraday commentary on the Mad Tea Party at the Comex.

Gold has broken out of the short term downtrend, but has yet to take out the big overhead resistance on the chart below marked in red.  

We have the smaller inverse head and shoulders working with a target that will activate the larger inverse head and shoulder, which forms the right portion of a huge 'W' double bottom.

So what does all that mean?    Follow through to the upside is everything at this point.  The wiseguys still have the whip hand on the Comex.

And the Comex is still playing a role in setting the price of the precious metals at least in the West.

The shorts are not quite on the run yet, and we may have to face some difficulties during the non-active delivery month of March.  

The Baghdad Bob's of the gold cartel are still out there talking their gloom and doom for the metals, and triumphantly asserting their demise.

But so far, so good.   Let's see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.







SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Swing and a Miss


The wiseguys were pumping equities hard today, reaching for that mythical 1348 new all time high on the cash SP 500.

They had it intraday but could not hang on, and profit taking set in during the afternoon, with the futures chalking up yet another failed attempt to breach that overhead resistance.

I am sure they will give it a few more tries. It is not hard to get it there given the dominance of high speed day trading in this market, and lack of substantial investing, which implies a buy and hold approach based on some sort of fundamentals.

Let's see what happens. Have a pleasant evening.





NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - The Mad Tea Party


"The table was a large one, but the three were all crowded together at one corner of it: `No room! No room!' they cried out when they saw Alice coming.

`There's plenty of room!' said Alice indignantly, and she sat down in a large arm-chair at one end of the table.

`Have some wine,' the March Hare said in an encouraging tone.

Alice looked all round the table, but there was nothing on it but tea. `I don't see any wine,' she remarked.

`There isn't any,' said the March Hare.

`Then it wasn't very civil of you to offer it,' said Alice angrily."

Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland

The Comex reminds me of the Mad Tea Party, with the LBMA not all that far behind it. 

As for GLD and its like, when the tea pot gets tipped, let's see what comes out.

As a reminder, tomorrow is the March option expiration for precious metals at the Comex.

The SP 500 is running the stops to a new all time high.  One has to wonder what the Fed and the ruling class are thinking.  

Well,  if you don't know where you are going, any road can take you there.


22 February 2014

Death By Metadata: Greenwald and Scahill with Amy Goodman






Bill Moyers: Deep State Hiding In Plain Sight


"Yes, there is another government concealed behind the one that is visible at either end of Pennsylvania Avenue, a hybrid entity of public and private institutions ruling the country according to consistent patterns in season and out, connected to, but only intermittently controlled by, the visible state whose leaders we choose.

My analysis of this phenomenon is not an exposé of a secret, conspiratorial cabal; the state within a state is hiding mostly in plain sight, and its operators mainly act in the light of day. Nor can this other government be accurately termed an 'establishment.'

All complex societies have an establishment, a social network committed to its own enrichment and perpetuation. In terms of its scope, financial resources and sheer global reach, the American hybrid state, the Deep State, is in a class by itself. That said, it is neither omniscient nor invincible. The institution is not so much sinister (although it has highly sinister aspects) as it is relentlessly well entrenched.

Far from being invincible, its failures, such as those in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, are routine enough that it is only the Deep State’s protectiveness towards its higher-ranking personnel that allows them to escape the consequences of their frequent ineptitude."

Mike Lofgren, Anatomy of the Deep State


"Rome lived upon its principal till ruin stared it in the face. Industry is the only true source of wealth, and there was no industry in Rome. By day the Ostia road was crowded with carts and muleteers, carrying to the great city the silks and spices of the East, the marble of Asia Minor, the timber of the Atlas, the grain of Africa and Egypt; and the carts brought out nothing but loads of dung. That was their return cargo."

Winwood Reade, The Martyrdom of Man


21 February 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Coiling Into Option Expiration


Yes it is that time again as next Tuesday is another option expiration for the precious metals on the Comex. See the calendar chart below.

The Comex warehouses continued to shuffle their chips and cards, with no meaningful movement of gold bullion in or out yesterday.

Gold is obviously coiling in a symmetrical triangle at key resistance, within a large inverse H&S formation, and an even larger 'W formation.'

I do not expect the Comex situation to resolve itself this month, with continuing low inventories of deliverable gold and antics with price and delivery being played until there is some shock from outside the pits, some failure to deliver that cannot be covered up or brushed aside. 


It *could* break right at the Comex, but I suspect that the price setting mechanisms there are sufficiently divorced from the real market so that Comex will be collateral damage to some much larger event. 

It takes patience in times like these, since things unfold slowly when you watch them every day.  But when the time is come, it seems as though it happens all in a rush, and the inevitability of it all appears to have been written large on the wall. 

That is how it was with the last financial crisis, and that is how it will be with the next one which is probably no more than two years away.  While the policies and fundamentals remain the same, it will be foolish to expect other outcomes.

Have a pleasant weekend. See you Sunday evening.





 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bumping Against Resistance


Stocks tried to rally today, but fell back again in the afternoon. This 1840ish resistance on the SP 500 futures is proving formidable, with at least twelve tests so far this year that have failed to breach it, four times most recently.

I think we will need to see some signs of sustainability in the real economy before stocks can move confidently higher, with the Fed starting to pull back on the rate at which it throws easy money to the financiers.

And despite a few misleading statistics here and there, it is just not happening yet. This is a classic liquidity trap, where the failure of aggregate demand is causing the production side to hold back, and yet the policy makers continue to dampen the income side that fuels that demand.

Do not get me wrong, providing living wages to more people would certainly stimulate aggregate demand, but so also would a more mercantilist stance towards exports and imports, or an exogenous demand such as war. Perpetual war of the sort we see the US and UK engaging in does not quite do it, as it is a slow smolder and narrowly concentrated in high ticket technology.

How can any other outcome be expected, given the continuing anti-human nonsense that is monetary and public policy?

Have a pleasant evening.