10 October 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pop Go the Weasels

The theme I struck that the record Alibaba IPO might strike a high watermark given the extreme ramp higher in stocks that the wiseguys provided to get that pig out at a high price is proving a little more credible now.

I did not look up the statistic, but I heard that the 25 or so IPOs that have come out since then have all sold weakly to lower in the secondary market, and several are lowering prices to even get them out the door.

The market was trading weakly most of the day. The algos and trade monkeys are looking hard at the cash SP 500 and its 200 Day Moving Average which is now around 1905. We *might* see support and a bounce there if they have it in them next week. But if not, the next day may see a gap down open and some cascade selling until we reach stronger support and a capitulation of sorts.

Another interesting statistic I saw today is that on average the stock market corrects about 15% over time after the Fed ends a QE program.

Hey, we're almost there!  At least in terms of the calendar.  The market have another ten or more percent to go. 

The talking heads are busily assuring mom and pop to stay fully invested. I own no stocks myself, except for a small position in a silver royalty play.

I have included the news for next week in the calendar below. As a reminder Friday is also a stock option expiration for October, so we will most likely see some shenanigans before and on that day.

Earnings season continues.  Tech was leading the way lower today, so lets see if tech can get its act together and provide a typical short covering rally which is typical of this thin, technically traded market.

Have a great weekend everyone.