27 January 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - FOMC Tomorrow - Give Us Some Sugar, Baby

Stocks were really giving it up this morning, based on postcards from the real world.

Microsoft's results last night, although initially applauded by the pundit class, were about as mediocre as their non-gaming products. And that stock finally sold off.

Catepillar posted lousy results this morning. Love that strong dollar, right guys? About half the SP 500 relies on multinational income streams that are sucking wind.

And finally the durable goods results, in the chart below, were much worse than expected. Although I normally do not account them all that much because of their volatility, the trend has been negative for almost half a year now, and the core numbers blew chunks.

Wow, The Recovery is faltering. Do you think Bubbe is going to start raising rates to please those who want what, an even stronger dollar, and even more economic stagnation, even less inflation?

No way, Ray.

I predict that, barring an unforeseen macro trend change in currencies or the economy, the most we will get out of the Fed this year is a 'one and done' that gives them symbolic room to cut if the shit hits the fan.

And I am beginning to doubt even that old play, in the days of QE and unconventional behaviour. 
By the way, I think Janet Yellen is just cute as a button.  I have a terrible time trying to make fun of her, or even say anything bad about her.   She looks just like my old grandmother, God rest her gentle soul.  I would sit in her lap on a bent Boston rocker that I still have, and she would tell me the best stories, always with a strong moral message of good and evil.  Oh well, the days we knew and loved are gone forever. 
More likely the Fed will start jawboning about some QE4, where they buy even more and worse assets from someone, hopefully not just the Banks but its likely that they will hit those tarts again, and at non-market prices to subsidize their reckless gambling.
 God forbid that anyone might offer any kind of stimulus or relief to the public.  They might do something crazy like spend it on essential and raise demand for goods more broadly.  Better to give the money to the robber barons, fraud kings, and monopoly makers.

Have a pleasant evening.