24 April 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - A Sick Economy and a Frankenstein Stock Market

The durable orders number, ex-transportation which means aircraft, was very poor this morning marking seven months in a row of declines. It is the trend, not the headline number, that is most important.

Stocks were off to the races, with 'tech staples' leading the charge.

The Nasdaq set a new all time high.

The VIX is at its low for this year, an area of complacency we have not seen since the beginning of last December.

If you look closely at the composition of the market, you will find that in the major indices the declines were outpacing the advances.

What this means is that the index moved higher on selective buying in certain heavily weighted stocks.

All in all, this is a good time to take profits and pare back on stock holdings. Not necessarily go short unless you are very aggressive and a short term seasoned trader, but in anticipation that the market momentum wiseguys are expecting the Fed to bail them out further at these valuations.

Or the ECB and Bank of Japan for that matter. We are in one heck of a nasty little bubble here in financial paper.

You might miss another ten percent to the upside, but the risks here make my skin crawl unless something changes. A narrowing market on light volumes with a negative Advance-Decline number. Yikes!

Have a pleasant weekend.