It is hard to handicap this kind of game, when you really do not understand the objectives and the nature of it, and use all the wrong sources to discover what is really happening.
"Where such a shift in power is in favor of the governing elite, Power will achieve its murderous potential. It simply waits for an excuse, an event of some sort, an assassination, a massacre in a neighboring country, an attempted coup, a famine, or a natural disaster, to justify the beginning of murder en masse. Most state sponsored murder occurs under the cover of war, revolution, or guerrilla war, or in their aftermath."
R. J. Rummel