05 June 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Labor Games

Some days I just do not have the words.

I would like to point out just one anomaly in the Jobs Report.

The 'plug' that the BLS puts in for jobs that were added and subtracted by small business being created and failing is called 'the Birth/Death Model.' It is a fairly substantial number in some months. I refer to it as the 'imaginary jobs number.'

This number is added to the unseasonalized, unadjusted raw jobs number, and then is seasonalized and adjusted to form the basis for the 'headline number.'   You can think of this BLS Birth/Death model as one part of a 'double adjustment' on the jobs.

One thing that stood out on this report was that the imaginary jobs added were exactly 213,000 for both April and May.

I cannot recall seeing a number repeat so exactly like this in all the years I have been watching these reports.  I just thought that it was interesting.  Normally the numbers are much more volatile.
If you back out the imaginary jobs with the second layer of seasonality the economy added about 64,000 jobs.  I tend to watch this each month.  
I am sure that there are a number of jobs being added by companies being created and going out of business.  But I think what the BLS comes up with is best looked at over a long period of time, and is inappropriate as a monthly indicator of just about anything. 
The 'jobs' in the US tend to be growing, slower than the increasing workforce, and also tend to be low paid.   The Administration was quick to say that this is why we should be cheering for the TPP, because any export jobs it might create are likely to be higher-paying.
And except for media drones and politicians, no one over the age of seven is likely to have found any of that to be credible.
Have a pleasant weekend.