10 November 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - T'was the Witch of November Come Stealin'

When suppertime came, the old cook came on deck
Sayin'  Fellas, it's too rough to feed ya
At seven PM a main hatchway caved in
He said, Fellas, it's been good to know ya
The captain wired in he had water comin' in
And the good ship and crew was in peril
And later that night when his lights went out of sight
Came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.

Gordon Lightfoot, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald

I have included the two stock index cash market charts with technicals.

There is a potential 'island top' forming on the NDX, and the SP 500 looks like it might be testing the 200 DMA.

Bottom line is if stocks start rolling over with some real selling, and not this tissue thin HFT shell game that has taken the place of actual price discovery, then we could be in for a very rough ride.

Let's see how much more the Fed is willing to spend to support their latest paper asset bubble. And let's see if they can raise rates fast enough to have enough room to lower them again in response to another crisis which they have themselves would most likely have caused.

Today is the 40th anniversary of the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald during a fierce November storm on Lake Superior.

I remember it fairly well.  At the time I was in my senior year of college, and was living in the heights area east of Cleveland, Ohio, which was also the 'snow belt' for lake effect snow caused by moist winds rising up off the lake.  So the news of the ship lost at sea was very big on the local news, and affected families in the area from Ashtabula to Toledo.

Erie itself is a relatively shallow and narrow lake, with an average depth of only 30 feet. We used to fish for walleyed pike around the western islands to Pelee in Canada.  But the storms out on the open water could kick up the waves very quickly, and you did not want to be out too far in a 16 footer if a storm came in from the northwest.  The waves could lift you up and then smash you down on the partially submerged rocks.  More than a few times we raced a pop up thunderstorm to Put-In-Bay, and the safety of the old Roundhouse Bar.

I like to think I have a reasonably well-honed sense of potential danger.  And I feel that dangerous potential in this market.  Whether it comes to be or not is another matter.  It is more possible than probable for now, and the Fed is spreading the oil of printed money over Wall Street's troubled waters.

Have a pleasant evening.