29 July 2016

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Hanging On

The Q2 GDP number sucked out loud this morning, coming in at 1.2% as compared to the economic consensus of 2.6%.  And the prior period was adjusted lower to a slim 0.8% from 1.1%.  And the Atlanta Fed slashed their going forward GDP forecast.

Well, Hillary has been nominated now to carry on Barry O's legacy of stagnation for the many, so it's mission accomplished, and time for the economic carnies to pull up their statistical stakes and move on.

Now we know why the Fed balked at a largely symbolic 25 basis point yesterday;  today's GDP number would have made them look like idiots.

But they did say they saw clear signs of growth, so maybe they are still following their normal course of seeing the world through one percent eyes.

VIX took a decline today, and stocks are looking very fully valued, with leadership continuing to narrow.    Time to start trimming stock positions from the longs, perhaps, because any exogenous event could make for a fairly stiff reversal.  But those are very tough to predict.

Have a pleasant weekend.