15 November 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Stock Option Expiry Friday, Comex Options Next Week

"What is the Democratic Party’s former constituency of labor and progressive reformers to do? Are they to stand by and let the party be captured in Hillary’s wake by Robert Rubin’s Goldman Sachs-Citigroup gang that backed her and Obama?

The 2016 election sounded the death knell for the identity politics. Its aim was to persuade voters not to think of their identity in economic terms, but to think of themselves as women or as racial and ethnic groups first and foremost, not as having common economic interests. This strategy to distract voters from economic policies has obviously failed...

This election showed that voters have a sense of when they’re being lied to. After eight years of Obama’s demagogy, pretending to support the people but delivering his constituency to his financial backers on Wall Street. 'Identity politics' has given way to the stronger force of economic distress. Mobilizing identity politics behind a Wall Street program will no longer work."

Michael Hudson

December is historically a big month for gold on the Comex, and this year looks to be no real exception.

The precious metals have been getting knocked lower in the Dollar crosses by paper traders who look at them as a currency with some perceived equilibrium with respect to the currency per se.

Put more simply, they are trading gold and silver as emerging market currencies, and running them contra the Dollar which is still the heart of the global financial establishment.

This can run for some time. When I did studies in the past, multi-linear regression analysis across a wide range of variables, I found that this contra-dollar correlation for gold in particular could last for long periods of time.

However, there are other periods in which gold moves in other ways without respect to this negative dollar correlation.

This caused me to suspect that the real correlation is more complex than a simplistic linear pricing model.

But what the heck, let's just see how long this strong dollar, higher yields on bonds and lower precious metals trade can go. Typically the forex crowd are paper traders using astronomical leverage. And they always tend to 'overshoot' their trends, and suffer sharp correction.

So all that being said, let's watch the charts and see which way we go, from what is clearly a short term oversold situation. It could become moreso. Or not.

In the intermediate to longer term I still believe quite strongly that the market is going to implode from an excess of leverage and a lack of primary assets backing those claims. And it could be quite impressive.

I am also quite concerned about the rise of civil disobedience and protests of the sort we have not seen in the US in many years. I have to admit that I am somewhat relieved that Hillary and her neo-cons have been tossed.

But it is far too early to have much confidence in Donald Trump and his advisors, whomever they may eventually be.  I have completely lost confidence in the wisdom and restraint of the 'ruling elite' and their enablers.   And that does not bode well for anyone.  So one takes measures.  Hence alternative currencies.

So here we are.

Have a pleasant evening.