08 November 2016

NY Times Forecasts a 80% 93% Chance of Trump Win - Son of Brexit?

"People are upset.  They're angry at the system and they see Trump — not so much that they agree with him — but they see him as the human Molotov cocktail that they get to toss into the system like Brexit and blow it up, to send a message."

Michael Moore

"When Democrats sold out their own rank and file in the past it constituted betrayal, but at least it sometimes got them elected. Specifically, the strategy succeeded back in the 1990s when Republicans were market purists and working people truly had 'nowhere else to go'.    As our modern Clintonists of 2016 move instinctively to dismiss the concerns of working people, however, they should keep this in mind: those people may have finally found somewhere else to go."

Thomas Frank, Hillary Clinton Needs to Wake Up, 28 July 2016

"We've seen the hubris. And now we're seeing the scandals."

David Gergen

This forecast from the NY Times is just one group's reading of the situation, and it is far too early to call the race, as America's own 'Brexit Moment', but the showing by Trump has to be casting a chill on the American political establishment.

And perhaps some doubt on the polling that has been appearing throughout this political season.

There are a few remaining states that will be absolutely pivotal to the forecasters, especially Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

If Wisconsin goes Republican for president, it will be for the first time in 32 years.

So let's see what happens.  It still is too early to call.

If you want a laugh, tune in to MSNBC or CNN and listen to the shock and dismay amongst the commentators.

The credibility trap is on full display.  Those who have been living in the echo chamber of the insular establishment seem to be getting a very cold slap in the face from reality.

I wonder if the Democratic insiders are capable of learning something from this one, especially with regard to the 'they have nowhere else to go' attitude towards their traditional base, before they threw them overboard from the free trade express, and adopted the 'one dollar, one vote' philosophy.

Or will it just be 'blame Wikileaks, blame the Russians, blame Bernie Sanders, and excoriate the voting public for their ignorance in failing to recognize our natural right to rule.'

As they have said several times tonight, 'The smart people were wrong again.'   As opposed to the dopes who make up the rest of the country and need their guidance.

It is wonderful to see how the very serious people can look at this farce of a recovery, and still not get it.   They are like British aristocrats stomping around their far flung colonies in days gone by saying, 'Why are the natives so angry?  What do they want?  What would they do without us?'

The Dow futures are down roughly 700 points.

Gold has rocketed higher to $1323, and silver is bumping its head against $19.

So let's see what happens.

Link to live NY Times forecast page here.