21 March 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Providence, the Hidden Hand

"Wonderful providence indeed which is so silent, yet so efficacious, so constant, so unerring.  This is what baffles the power of Satan.  He cannot discern the Hand of God in what goes on; and though he would fain meet it and encounter it, in his mad and blasphemous rebellion against heaven, he cannot find it.

Crafty and penetrating as he is, yet his thousand eyes and his many instruments avail him nothing against the majestic serene silence, the holy imperturbable calm which reigns through the providence of God."

John Henry Newman, Parochial Sermon 17

Unless you were buried by a snowdrift you know that the Fed did the expected today, increasing their benchmark rate by 25 bp and maintaining their vectors for three interest rate increases this year, and two next year.

There was some feeling based on remarks in their statement that the Fed was signaling a bit more hawkishness based on increasing employment levels and a recovering economy. This also sparked some indications that three rate increases for this year are fully priced in, and the possibility for a fourth has increased somewhat.

Gold and silver, which had been showing some perkiness, took off higher, rallying quite a bit more than our most recent experiences.

And conversely the Dollar took a swan dive, at least for the day. I have posted a chart of that action below.

However, it should be noted that in the bigger picture the Dollar and the Metals are still just wriggling around in trading ranges. While there is some real potential on the charts, that potential has yet to be confirmed.

Bonds rallied, perhaps because the hawkish of the statement was snot as much as expected, and it was tempered even more by Jay Powell in his press conference.

Oil rallied along with gold and silver, helping boost the commodities.   There was another larger than expected drawdown in oil supplies.

It has been announced that Trumpolini will be announcing  new tariffs aimed at punishing China for their transgressions in abusing US corporate Intellectual Property rights.  It could be important to watch how China responds.

For today those who were positioned well can take some comfort from the results.

And for all those many more who don't chase the wiggles, but hold on for the longer term, things continue unwinding, slowly but surely, with much that can give them some rightful optimism.

There will be a stock option expiration for the precious metals next Monday the 26th. I have included that calendar below.

Let's see how the rest of the week unfolds.

The nor'easter, which has been passing through all day, is under-achieving itself so far. But the snow is now sticking, slowly but surely, and the forecasters are saying that we are in for heavier bands of snowfall from a bit later for about six hours. This is how the other nor'easter also worked its devices— deceptively slow to start, and then all in a rush.

As for me, I have the young man to assist me, and a very capable snowblower at the ready. And from her serene perch indoors, Dolly views all this with her usual disdain for all things that are snow or rain.

Have a pleasant evening.