02 May 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Take It To the Limit, One More Time - Said the Joker to the Thief

"But there is a sort of  'Ok guys, you're mad, but how are you going to stop me' mentality at the top."

Robert Johnson, Audacious Oligarchy

There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke. Or a game, without personal consequences.

The Fed did what was expected with interest rates today which was to stay their course and have a plan to keep raising rates as the economy continues to improve.

Their words were carefully sifted, and after an initial push higher stocks slumped.

The Dollar was interesting as it initially dumped, and then spiked higher into the close.

The bottom line is that nothing has changed.

The 'recovery' continues weakly, with its results and benefits skewed very unevenly towards the top of the income stack.

Today on twitter Ron Insana said that we are not experiencing stagflation, but just the normal economic conditions that appear in a 'late stage recovery.'

What recovery?   And for whom?   When did that happen?   Oh The Recovery™.    Riiiight.

The Fed is starting to declare 'mission accomplished' with regard to stimulating inflation to justify their raising rates far enough above the zero bound to give themselves some room for policy actions when their latest asset bubble starts to implode.

The geo-political risks are 'concerning.'

At the end of the day the unresolved corruption and frauds that have become embedded in the system, such that not much would tend to surprise me. We have had a market break earlier this year. And now we are vacillating in a range with lower highs and rising lows, coiling into a wedge.

Scenarios like this will often resolve with some violence, triggered by some trivial-seeming event if it goes on long enough.  I am not sure which way, but it does not feel good given the non-economic risks and the utter lack of organic growth in the real median wage.

I have a very open mind for a market dislocation in the second half of this year.  And the reaction it may trigger could be rather disconcerting even to hardened corporatist cynics.  There is some precedent for this in history.

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.