Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Death By Selfishness - AAPL After the Bell, FOMC Tomorrow

“National Socialism was a revulsion by my friends against parliamentary politics, parliamentary debate, parliamentary government—against all the higgling and the haggling of the parties and the splinter parties, their coalitions, their confusions, and their conniving.   It was the final fruit of the common man's repudiation of 'the rascals'.   Its motif was, 'Throw them all out.'

I fooled myself.  I had to.  Everybody has to.  If the good had been twice as good and the bad only half as bad, I still ought to have seen it.   But I didn't want to see it, because I would have then had to think about the consequences of seeing it, what followed from seeing it, what I must do to be decent.   I wanted my home and family, my job, my career, a place in the community.”

Milton Mayer, They Thought They Were Free


"The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power as well.  Nothing from the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them.  Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the rich.   Plunder, rape, and slaughter they falsely call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace."

Tacitus


"It is always the soul that dies first, even if it's departure goes unnoticed.  And it always carries the body along with it.  Man is nourished by the invisible, man is nourished by that which is beyond the personal.  He dies from preferring the opposite."

Jacques Lusseyran

Stocks were falling sharply earlier in the day, but a steady bid underneath brought them back into the green by the end of the day, led by the SP500.

Gold and silver managed to gain back a little from recent losses thanks in part to continued decline in the Dollar DX Index.

Trumpolini and the corporate Democrats have agreed that $2 Trillion would be a nice size for an infrastructure project.

The key to this exercise is how big of a role, and piece of the rentier action, that the oligarchs can carve out for themselves.

The US inspired/financed/managed coup in Venezuela was heating up today. It's all about the oil.

FOMC tomorrow.  Trumpolini has decided that to celebrate our glorious recovery that the Fed should start the QE program back up, and cut interest rates by 100 basis points.

That is not stimulus.   That is a rescue.  What are they not telling us?   Hint: The Recovery™ is paper thin at best, and a charade.

Apple's earnings are anticipated after the bell. They may be important after the Google miss last night.

A crash is coming. And it could be terrific.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Waiting for the Night King - Art Imitates a Twitter Feed

The markets seemed to be holding their breath today, waiting for something to happen.

The FOMC meeting announcement on Wednesday seems to be overshadowing the large amounts of economic data, and company earnings announcements.

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

The following is dark and full of spoilers.

As all its loyal fans know, this is the last season of Game of Thrones.   And it is even more poignant because it seems increasingly doubtful that George R. R. Martin will ever finish the books and provide the kind of well thought out plotlines for which he is known. 

Last night was the dramatic confrontation with the Night King at the Battle of Winterfell.   The first thing the survivors should do is hold an inquiry.  Who designed their defensive and offensive tactics, the Democratic National Committee?

It was a nice touch that they built a very strong defensive trench, that was at the back of their troops deployed on the fields in front, creating a lovely bottleneck for their own people when their inevitable retreat was called.

Almost as clever as having your Dothraki cavalry charge far out ahead into a spear wielding horde in the dark to be slaughtered.  But then again, packing all the women and children in a closely confined crypt full of dead people, who would almost certainly be called to life by the Night King, was also a stroke of genius.

When the trench was finally lighted, the difficulty of which was laughable, the crafty zombies thwarted it by what—  just stopping and looking at it.   I'll bet the defenders were sad that they placed the fireball throwing trebuchets out front where they would be almost immediately overrun.  But at long last someone decided to man the walls.  tra la.

And as suspected, a deus ex machina event in the final minutes snatched victory from defeat.  It was hard to tell if they copied this universal kill off gimmick from Blade Trinity or Resident Evil.  The 'battle' itself was right out of World War Z and The Walking Dead.

There were some very well filmed moments, and lots of 'cool scenes' and poignant action, for people to comment online to their friends.  Unfortunately they were stitched together almost after the fact.   It was like art imitates a twitter feed.

And is this surprising?  Our own political discourse has devolved into a series of zingers and gotcha moments, of spectacles and theater, loosely stitched together with a thin mockery of priority, planning, and policy.

But no matter, let's get on with it.  Next up to bat is Cersei and King's Landing.  I hope the final two episodes can do a little better in resolving some open questions, and the many, many fan theories.  It is hard to accept that this was the great confrontation that we have been waiting literally years to see.

April is toddling on, with its odd mix of very cold nights and raw days, mixed in with weather that seems more fitting for early Summer, all interspersed with rainy cold fronts.

I have been trying out some new techniques around the yard, including using Quoddy blend 'lobster compost' from Coast of Maine.

A local higher end supermarket chain had a load of it on sale at a great price, and I bought it for all the shrub planting and tending work.  It was the same price as common garden soil.   I don't know if the lobster shells will make any serious difference, but the composition and suitability  of the stuff was very nice indeed.

The lawn has responded very well to the overseeding and general maintenance, and I am pleased that I used starter fertilizer rather than a high nitrogen stuff that provokes top growth and maximizes your need to mow, and little else.

Growing things around here is difficult, because we are located in what used to be mountains, but have been ground down over the millenia into foothills and escarpments with a nice rock and clay mixture of  problematic soil with a natural acidity.  It is rare that you can dig a simple hole for planting here without the help of a pickaxe.

The severe moss problem seems to be getting back under control.  Its funny how when you stop paying attention to things for seven or eight years how easily they can finally go all to hell.   Kind of reminds one of the lack of integrity in the financial markets after years of regulatory capture.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - IPOs Rising - Non-Farm Payrolls Report and FOMC Next Week

"The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small.   It is nearly nil.   Perhaps this is inherent.  In a community where the primary concern is making money, one of the necessary rules is to live and let live.   To speak out against madness may be to ruin those who have succumbed to it.  So the wise in Wall Street are nearly always silent.  The foolish thus have the field to themselves. None rebukes them."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929


"Surprising real GDP growth rate of 3.18% is a contrived illusion. - BEA used a unique inflation deflator of 0.64%!   More commonly used deflator BLS CPI-U inflation rate 2.27%.  If BLS deflator used, GDP growth rate 1.56% (Half BEA #).   Setting aside trade and inventory build (goods produced but not bought), BEA says growth rate of real final sales of domestic products was 2.53%, but if BLS CPI-U deflator used real final sales was 1.0%.  "Goldilocks" moment was achieved through growing inventories, increased governmental outlays, crashing import values and materially understated inflation.”

Harald Malmgren

Just draining the swamp...

GDP for 1Q 2019 came in quite a bit higher than expected, which caused an immediate reaction in the markets.

And then people had a chance to look behind the headlines, at the drop in consumer spending, the build up in inventories, and the rather lowballed PCE deflator, and they changed their minds.

Gold and silver managed to push higher past some recently stubborn overhead resistance, thanks in part to the weaker Dollar.

And let us not overlook the fact that the important option expiration on the Comex is now past. Not enough analysts are aware of market events such as this.

Stocks managed to push higher, with the SP 500 futures tagging back up to the old high from last year.

There are some important (big, lucrative) IPOs coming to market, and even a direct sale by Slack, sans banker underwriters and road shows.

Since these are hard to price unicorn and gig stocks, the markets will be applying plenty of grease to the skids, along with the lipstick on the pigs, in order to get these valuable items suitably placed with the buy side and institutions.

Next week there will be the Non-Farm Payrolls Report for April.

And the FOMC will grace us with yet another of their rate decisions.  Nothing will be done.  And if they are wise, they will announce this wearing sackcloth, and covered in ashes, in contrition for willfully igniting yet another financial asset bubble.

Happy Easter to my many Orthodox Christian friends.

Need little, want less, and love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.

London Gold Market Imports and Exports - Currency Wars

"Fraud and falsehood only dread examination.  Truth invites it."

Samuel Johnson

Gold is flowing from West to East.

Net central bank purchases of gold in 4Q 2018 were the highest on record.

So few notice—  and even fewer really understand.

Money is power, so do not expect this transition to go smoothly.  Or quietly.  Or honestly.

C'est la guerre des monnaies.

Truly, there is nothing new under the sun.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Markets Are Holding Their Breadth - Comex Precious Metals Option Expiration

"Financialization is profit margin growth without labor productivity growth. That sounds like a small thing, but I tell you it is everything.

Financialization is squeezing more earnings from a dollar of sales without squeezing at all, but through tax arbitrage or balance-sheet arbitrage.

Financialization is the zero-sum-game aspect of capitalism, where profit-margin growth is both pulled forward from future real growth and pulled away from current economic risk-taking.

Financialization is the smiley-face perversion of Adam Smith’s invisible hand and Joseph Schumpeter’s creative destruction.

Financialization is a global phenomenon. In China, it’s transmitted through the real-estate market. In the U.S., it’s transmitted through the stock market."

Ben Hunt


"God whispers to us in our pleasures, speaks in our consciences, but shouts in our pains. It is his megaphone to rouse a deaf world.”

C. S. Lewis

Stocks are hanging on, waiting for more behemoths to report earnings, preferably of the fabulous kind.

Gold and silver continued to mark time today in honor of the Comex precious metals options expiration.

Karma is in the distance, but heading our way.

Who could have seen it coming?

At ramming speed?

Have a pleasant evening.