09 October 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - After the Bell Stock Futures Plunge, Metals Rally On Trade Talks Gloom

"...the basis for highly geared interest rate arbitrage by borrowing gold is running into a brick wall.  Not only is there no incentive for lessors but also there is also a diminishing appetite for lessees because the opportunities are vanishing.  Synthetic gold liabilities are being gradually reduced, not only by ceasing the creation of new obligations, but by buying bullion to cover existing ones. 

This will have been particularly the case when the USD yield curve began to invert in recent months (itself a backwardation of time preference), and was the surface reason, therefore, that the gold price moved rapidly from under $1200 to over $1500.

This change in direction for bullion banks represents another fundamental difference between this rally in the gold price and rallies of the past. What’s more, given the entrenched low-rate environment, it looks like it might remain a factor for some time to come."

USA*GOLD, What Makes This Gold Rally Different From All Others

“What is amazing about this run-up in gold that we have seen is that it has taken place with the U.S. dollar actually quite firm.”

David Rosenberg, Financial Post

Stocks were attempting to rally from the overnight session, and managed to take and hold some decent gains today.

Volume was very light today, probably due in part to the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur.

Turkey opened its assault on the Kurds today. President Trump seemed to dismiss his betrayal of the Kurds, who have been the long time fighters with the US against ISIS.  They are generally recognized by the US military as faithful and valiant allies.
"They didn't help us in the Second World War, they didn't help us with Normandy," Trump said of the Kurds.  He added, "With all of that being said, we like the Kurds."

John Haltiwanger, Business Insider, Trump defends abandoning the Kurds by saying they didn't help the US in WWII
Iraqi Kurdistan first gained autonomous status in a 1970 agreement.

Turkey entered the war on the side of the Allies in February, 1945 after a long and careful neutrality.

Gold and silver were largely unchanged, as was the Dollar.

After the bell stocks have plunged and the metals rallied after Chinese media report that the China-US trade talks have made no progress.

The charts below show the market close at 4 PM.

Have a pleasant evening.