03 January 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk Off - Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week

Rome and the whole pagan world had gone mad, and Caesar was swimming in blood...
“Four sorrows are certain to be visited on the United States.
  • First, there will be a state of perpetual war.
  • Second is a loss of democracy and Constitutional rights as the presidency eclipses Congress and is itself transformed from a co-equal ‘executive branch’ of government into a military junta.
  • Third is the replacement of truth by propaganda, disinformation, and the glorification of war, power, and the military legions.
  • Lastly, there is bankruptcy, as the United States pours its economic resources into ever more grandiose military projects and shortchanges the education, health, and safety of its citizens.”
Chalmers Johnson, The Sorrows of Empire, 2005

“Seneca had made the bargain that many good men have made when agreeing to aid bad regimes.  On the one hand, their presence strengthens the regime and helps it endure.  But their moral influence may also improve the regime's behavior or save the lives of its enemies.  For many, this has been a bargain worth making, even if it has cost them—as it may have cost Seneca—their immortal soul.”

James Romm, Dying Every Day: Seneca at the Court of Nero

"If you are wise and understand God’s ways, prove it by living an honorable life, doing good works with the humility that comes from wisdom.  But if you are bitterly jealous and there is selfish ambition in your heart, don't hide the truth with boasting and lying. For jealousy and selfishness are not God’s kind of wisdom.  Such things are worldly, carnal, and demonic. For wherever there is jealousy and selfish ambition, there you will find disorder and evil of every kind."

James 3:13-15

Stocks took a major hit last night, and gold soared, in a flight to safety reaction after it was announced that the US had assassinated one of Iran's military and political leaders.

The Exchange Stabilization Fund managed to walk the futures back up a bit, and Wall Street closed ranks to help stocks regain some of this lost ground.

Gold however did not give up much ground, and is bumping its head against the key overhead resistance of 1550 on the chart.   If 1550 is taken out, we may see some significant moves sooner rather than later.  The ranges are marked on the chart.

Silver did not really participate because it is not a 'safe haven' play in the same manner as gold.  It is a companion to gold for the most part, but not the same, and not motivated by all the same things.  That is just how it goes.

The mental gyrations of the spokesmodels on financial television today, in dismissing the drop in stocks as the over-reaction of junior traders while the adults were still on holiday, was almost funny. It seemed like desperation.

We don't bother with facts or evidence much anymore—  just personal attacks and louder and more flamboyant rhetoric.

So let's see where this goes. 

It may turn out all right, and perhaps result in something positive.  But I am not hopeful at all.  And it is a major mistake to just dismiss this widening of exogenous risks as a 'blip on the screen.'  

The hucksters and carnival barkers of the financiers may say this, but they do not believe it one bit.  And neither should you.

Stocks are richly valued here, and the financial system is much more fragile than the powers that be will admit.

Other than continuing to pour more liquidity to the Banks, and allowing them to execute their virtually unregulated schemes behind the scenes, I don't think that there is a viable 'plan B' should things get nasty.

And my comfort level with the current administration in handling complex strategic issues with forethought and seriousness is almost nil.

In other words, do not count on your idols to protect you.  They may protect and help their associates and friends, but you, their blind worshippers and dispensable tools, are not among them.

The easy falling away of the faithful leaves one shocked, as well as deeply saddened.  For what does it profit a man, to give their soul for the whole world-- but for such an insignificant vanity?

Have a pleasant weekend.