14 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Rising Tide of Whatever - Option Expiration Tomorrow


"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.  I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted.  I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

Irving Fisher, Ph.D., Oct. 17, 1929 


"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." 

Goodbody and Company, The New York Times, October 25, 1929 


"This is the time to buy stocks.  This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan that any man who is bearish on America will go broke.  Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic.  Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years." 

 R. W. McNeal, NY Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 


"America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years.  On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin." 

Stuart Chase, NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 


"If you're going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it." 

Charlie Munger "


"Life is a school of probability." 

Walter Bagehot 


That last quote is the money quote.  No one can predict an improbable event like a crash. 

Unless you have real time access to critical insider information perhaps.

There are far too many variables, and too many degrees of freedom for the powers that be in the regime of a fiat currency and an oligarchical political structure in campaign funding.

But there are periods of increasing risk, even for lower probability events.

And if the Fed keeps saving the one percent and their Banks, and letting Main Street fend for itself, then stagflation becomes a more likely outcome, even though it is an economic distortion of the first order.

But, with no disrespect to Mr. Charlie Munger, unless you are part of the one percent, expect to be told to 'suck it up' if half of your savings evaporate.

Do not let greed overwhelm your common sense, no matter how persuasive the siren songs of easy money may be.

If you still had any doubts, this recent and pervasive scandal of insider trading at the Fed demonstrates how rotten and inefficient and rigged for the benefit of a few that the existing 'market' economy has become.

Stocks were off to the races, as fear was shed and greed became the theme of the day for traders.

Gold rose, and silver rose even more, rising the wave of fearless beta.

The Dollar fell slightly, slipping off the 94 handle.

The VIX dropped through its moving averages on an upswelling of exuberance.

The root cause of these supply chain disruptions are fragile operational systems driven by self-serving greed, the growth of behemoth corporate monopolies, and reckless, short term management.

Stock option expiration tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.