05 December 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Longing for Virtue in the Darkness


"When a nation threatens another nation the people of the latter forget their factionalism, their local antagonisms, their political differences, their suspicions of each other, their religious hostilities, and band together as one unit.  Leaders know that, and that is why so many of them whip up wars during periods of national crisis, or when the people become discontented and angry.  The leaders stigmatize the enemy with every vice they can think of, every evil and human depravity.  Attacking another nation, then, acts as a sort of catharsis, temporarily, on men’s fear of their immediate neighbors.  This is the explanation of all wars, all racial and religious hatreds, all massacres, and all attempts at genocide."

Taylor Caldwell, The Devil's Advocate, 1952

"The myth that holds that the great corporation is the puppet of the market, the powerless servant of the consumer is in fact one of the devices by which its power is perpetuated.   People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage.  The privileged feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Age of Uncertainty, 1977

“Corrupt citizens breed corrupt rulers, and it is the mob who finally decides when virtue shall die.”

Taylor Caldwell, Dear and Glorious Physician, 1958

“The mob believes everything it is told, provided only that it be repeated over and over.  Provided too that its passions, hatreds, fears are catered to.  The grosser, the bigger, the cruder the lie, the more readily is it believed and followed.  The mob can never comprehend that its own interests are what is at stake.”

Alexandre Koyré, Réflexions sur le Mensonge, 1943

"Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac.  All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting. War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it."

George Orwell, Facing Unpleasant Facts: Narrative Essays, 1999

Stocks were taking a little respite and a bounce higher after their recent declines.

The Dollar moved higher.

Gold and silver extended their decline.

VIX declined.

There is quite a chunk of gold sitting in the Comex warehouses in Hong Kong. 

This often presages a smack down in the Western futures price, and an outflow of physical in Asia, when they can manage it.  Like a Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Let's see what happens.  Sometimes they like to flip the trade, when too many hangers on are leaning heavily on a directional move.  Like the last Comex option expiration in the metals.

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

People can be very gullible about what causes moves in the equity markets.

Lately the shiny thing has been the perception of interest rates, moving up or pivoting towards cuts.

If you take these rationalizations at face value for the big daily moves in stocks, you might assume that the Wall Street crowd have the situational awareness and conviction of goldfish.

The small investor is not much of a factor in intraday pricing moves anymore.  They are mostly in cash or riding some favorite index fund.  The high frequency crowd preys on everyone, especially big fat managed funds.

Barring the big exogenous events, there is a relatively small but elite crew swinging a big money stick on the Street that sets the tone, and the rest follow the momentum that they declare.

Have a pleasant evening.