Showing posts with label Agencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Agencies. Show all posts

16 August 2011

US Markets and Foreign Ownership, Portfolio Risk and Net Investment Position



Keep in mind that when they talk about the "US position" or the "China position" this can include all ownership, both official and private, unless otherwise specified.

I was a little surprised to see the relative size of the US equity market versus the debt markets, ex-Federal Reserve ownership.

Also a bit of a surprise was the size of European Direct Investment in the US compared to other regions. No wonder Benny felt compelled to bail out their banks.

Things to look for in these graphs:

 Since 2002, the increase in foreign ownership of Treasury bonds has been driven almost entirely by government buyers. Until the 2007–2009 crisis, the same was true for bonds issued by governmentsponsored enterprises (agencies). In the postcrisis recovery, foreign private holdings of agencies are rising,
while foreign government holdings continue to fall.

 From 2005 to early 2007, foreign governments’ Treasury purchases were driven by China’s purchases. However, China became less significant during the crisis as other investors crowded in. Today, China’s purchases have remained elevated while the rest of the world is purchasing less than during the crisis peak.

 The Net International Investment Position (NIIP), meaning foreigners’ holdings of U.S. assets minus U.S. holdings of foreign assets, has remained remarkably resilient, even though the large U.S. current account deficit reflects a steady flow of net foreign purchases of U.S. assets. This trend is likely to persist if the dollar depreciates, since dollar depreciation results in gains in the dollar value of U.S. holdings of foreign assets.

 The U.S. portfolio of foreign assets is relatively risky, with a significant share of holdings in equities that generate gains during a boom but suffer losses when crisis strikes. By contrast, foreign holdings of U.S. assets are less volatile because of the concentration in treasuries. Following a sharp decline in 2008, the U.S. net international investment position recovered in 2009 due to strong equity market performance.

The entire report can be found here: Foreign Ownershp of US Assets - CFR Chartbook

click on a chart to view a larger version










06 January 2009

The Treasury Bubble and the Central Banks: Imbalance à Go Go


The astute observer may notice a trend change in the way that foreign central banks choose to deploy their dollar reserves while supporting their industrial policies.

There should be little doubt why there is a bubble in Treasuries, and why the Federal Reserve is in the market buying mortgage debt.