Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

27 January 2010

Memories of Beijing Ten Years Past


Below is a brief note from a friend abroad about his trip to Beijing and his experiences there with the retail gold trade which I found to be interesting. It is a sharp contrast to my last trip there over ten years ago.

The last time I was in Beijing was in 1998, and it must seem to be a different world there now. Back then there were few cars and a sea of bicycles. As a friend and I took a pedicab back from the Forbidden City to our hotel, it did seem as though we were in an ocean of moving people, bicyclists weaving about in ever shifting traffic patterns, with order maintained by some unspoken set of rules and deferences. There was no air pollution to speak of, and the sky was a deep blue, and the breeze crisp even on a sunny day.

Beijing was a sharp contrast to the great cities of the south. Vibrant Hong Kong nestled on the coast, and Shanghai, an expanding mass of grey on gray, concrete bristling with construction cranes. The sprawling capital seemed almost pristine, delicate. Especially if you did not see the huddle of one story concrete block villages on the outskirts of the main thoroughfares. But even they were more rural and underdeveloped than squalid like similar dwellings of the lower caste workers in the West. There was no litter or disorder, anywhere.

A major access highway was being constructed for the Olympics which the city hoped to host, which they did roughly ten years later. We marveled at the complete lack of heavy machinery, the mass of hand tools, and spiderworks of tied bamboo scaffolding.

The hotel was marvelous, with the kind of extravagant niceties that only a developing country can effortlessly provide to the prospective export trade. A twenty piece orchestra of excellent musicians in the spacious hotel lobby while you drink your coffee and tea in the afternoon is something that one rarely sees in a European hotel. And in the States, it is always impersonal, mass produced, and perfunctory. Welcome to the cult of death. Have a nice day.

Lovely people really, but the hardships of the countryside marked the faces of the peasants as we traveled outside the city to the Great Wall with our guide, Big Mah, so noted by his stature, which was average by European standards. The Wall itself runs the hilltops, clinging to mountainsides with remarkable tenacity. One does not walk the wall except for brief spans, and then you climb. The inclination is astonishing and the steps really large blocks, so it is an effort to lift your legs high enough from one to the next.

We labor to the top, to obtain a souvenir 'chop' on our paperwork at the summit, a symbol of our resolve. We are oddities again, some of the few Westerners. Crowds though of Chinese tourists exploring their heritage.

I am tired and sweating, regretting the lunch I ate earlier that day before the climb, and shamed by a young Buddhist monk who bounds up the incline like a gazelle, enigmatic smile spreading across his face, large straw hat in a fluid motion with his robes. I wonder why he is there. Do monks go on vacation? All he carries is a small leather purse and a stick.

Beyond that top point is the Wall unrestored, a shambles really, a recognizable collection of stone but not much more. Hardly a wall, more like a resilient pile of manmade things with a sort of quiet endurance, waiting for its renewal and the restoration provided by a Ten Year Plan, or not.

The visit to the cloisonné factory revealed a large showroom with small shops in the back staffed by women, intent as they worked in appalling, dirty conditions on ancient looking machinery. No health and safety inspections here. This is the ideal capitalism as Bill Gates described it after his own visit to the People's Republic. Keep your head down and your mouth shut.

At the tombs of the emperors we saw great stone rooms, empty of any furnishings or artifacts, stripped of all decadence during the Cultural Revolution. At least they have not despoiled the tomb of the great Qin Shi Huangdi, which sits in brooding solitude under its man made mountain on the plain. Is it truly superstition that prevents its excavation, or a fearful respect for what is recorded to have been the labor of tens of thousands of men in burying their first great Emperor in what is said to have been astonishing opulence, rivaling and perhaps surpassing that of the Pharaohs.

At the nearly deserted Friendship Store we watched a man slowly and painstakingly painting the insides of small medicine bottles with intricate strokes from a brush that seemed to consist of a few hairs. I have several of them still, on a shelf in my study. I sometimes wonder what became of him, and his quiet obeisance to art and the dignity of craftsmanship. It is good to surround yourself with little reminders of people whom you have known, for their spirits are all that will remain when the last stars flicker out.

There were few tourists, and my Italian chief engineer and I would draw more than a few stares from the passersby as we walked down the broad avenue towards Tiananmen Square. There was a McDonalds but it was closed for lack of interest. Groups of people crowded around what looked like newspapers posted on public boards, a primitive version of the Internet cafe.

We watched a football match one evening in the hotel bar via satellite, Italy versus the Czech Republic. I pretended to sympathize with my friend in the Italian loss, which for him was disgrazia e disonore, for the Italians to lose to such a team as mine, but I secretly reveled in the win. There was nothing else to do, as they had no grappa on hand to ease his suffering. It was the only thing that would absolve such an indignity, except time.

As a guest of the government we dined one evening in an official restaurant, with doors guarded by soldiers. Dinner was a treat, but the attempts to playfully intimidate me with a still lively lobster 'sushi' were misspent, as I had done my time in Tokyo and the small places off the Ginza playing that same game with my Japanese friend Shino san. I am a citizen of the world, and nothing is alien to me except sin.

Afterwards they had group karaoke and dancing marked by a charming innocence. The old gold toothed host challenged me to a drinking contest, with something that tasted like distilled kerosene served in a heavy white ceramic teapot that in Chinese was called the alcoholic's friend. I refused to be shamed into it and deferred, as I had to get up at 5 AM the next day for a flight that could not be missed, as it only ran twice a week as a nonstop to Scandinavia. If missed, it meant a lengthy flight with a connection through Bombay. No time for hangovers.

One of the young ladies remarked about a recent film she had seen, The Bridges of Madison County. I had never seen it, and still haven't. She was impressed that American men could be so sensitive, as she had been led to believe that we were barbarians. I did not have the heart to tell her that despite some finer moments, we really are. And so are hers.

Everywhere the clerks were polite but restrained, obviously pained to please, but especially when changing money. Slogans in Chinese were everywhere, urging the populace to work hard to achieve the award of hosting the Olympic games, to the point of civic obsession.

The airport was a nightmare of people and traffic. The line to enter the departure area was a clotted mass of people surging towards a tiny female guard. After facing down her fierce glare and outstretched hand, I learned what was required from a young German tourist with backpack and halting English, directing me to first purchase a departure tax coupon at the other end of the terminal. Don't panic, just get it done.

Once past that narrows of official release, there were piles of luggage and a small stand, barely a cardboard table and marked by a tiny sign, where one checked in for the non-stop flight to Copenhagen. I was so worried about missing the flight that I took my carry-on to the gate and sat on it, forgetting to exchange my Chinese money on departure, in violation of their currency controls. The money was a key plank in their ten year plan, like the exhortations on the walls.

It's all different now. China seems to be making the great leap forward. I have heard that the sea of bicycles is gone, replaced by impersonal masses of metal moving in linear formations. They even have smog in the city, an innocence lost.

And where is the West going? Is there some force that is causing the wealth of the people to seek a level, flowing from West to East, to bring all to the lowest common denominator? Or are the elite powers merely leveling the common people under their governance and the will to power? Are the great world civilizations converging around the individual, to crush his spirit?

And what price freedom.

Just returned last night from Beijing. While on standby at airport from 11:30 AM until 6:30 PM (all classes of all half-hourly flights of all airlines were overbooked and loaded full, and so asia mile / marco polo gold membership were ineffective in attempts to cut in the queue). Beijing-HK air travel business must be good.

To kill time, I extracted paper cash from atm network and exchanged same for little one troy ounce monetary gold wafer at airport sub-branch of bank of china. The staff were courteous, and the sub-branch manager spent 5 minutes with me to explain the way to buy and sell back gold.

Each wafer is individually numbered, and registered.

China is progressing fast in its re-engagement with gold. Wonderful. It is interesting that gold seems to be everywhere now at the China retail level, legally bought, kept, sold back, and all tax free, at transparent pricing, in alignment with gold reform that was two decades in planning, implementation, and rollout.


Now that is market capitalism, which the US banking system is now sadly lacking. A free market is not dominated by opaque complexity, endless frauds and limited choices, with high rents extracted by government license, feeding on productive effort, placing toll booths across fundamentally simple transactions with a nightmarish private bureaucracy and regressive taxation. That is feudalism, or more recently, crony capitalism.

Capitalism is about the creation and the adding of value, satisfying customer demands, thereby making them -- happy. It is not the taking of inordinate fees through legalistic snares and artificial complexity, obstacles and contrivances, government sanctioned monopolies and corporate racketeering.

The Banks and politicians no longer respond to the people, their customers, because they have merged their interests to the exclusion of all others, serving themselves, undermining the fundamental basis of social relationships and trust. The starting point of regulatory reform is no longer what the people need, but rather, what Wall Street requires. This is the same model as the US health care system. The corruption starts its financiers, but has its roots in Washington.

And so perhaps we may have a global recovery, even prosperity, and a return to the discipline of the market, if we bury our would-be emperors, the Banks, with their terra cotta army of regulators and politicians.

05 March 2009

Most Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Treasuries for Their National Reserves


Barbarously inconvenient to the global dollar hegemon.

Time for another announcement of an IMF gold sale? Sounds as though China would like to know when they will be able to take delivery.

Zimbabwe Ben will simply have to pick up the slack.

In all seriousness, if China starts pressing this issue the US will have no choice but engage in the long overdue revaluation of its national gold reserves significantly higher. This would be one method of reducing the national debt to China and buying back some of the Treasury bonds.

Unfortunately in this case 'higher' would be a factor of x5 at least, or as high as an order of magnitude, x10.

Perhaps the Chinese would settle for an option on West Texas, if Mexico is not interested.

And the angel shouted, "Fallen! Powerful Babylon has fallen..." Revelation 18:2


ChinaStakes
Survey: Over Two-Thirds of Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Bonds

by CSC staff, Shanghai
March 02,2009

In a survey of major Chinese economists, more than two-thirds are reportedly bearish on the prospect of China increasing its holdings of US government bonds, and believe instead the nation should putting more of its hard-earned into gold.

According to a China Business News survey of 70 Chinese economists (including one foreign economist), the exact figure is 71.4% anti-bonds and pro-gold.

The use of China's huge foreign exchange reserve is a topic of concern and controversy. The remaining 28.6% of those polled believe China should continue to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. 38.6% think that China should not continue to buy, but also should not to sell US bonds. 32.8% believe that China should unload the bonds, 22.8% of whom think we should have a slight sell-off, while 10% think China should drop them like a bad habit.

All this is against a backdrop of China surpassing Japan to become America's largest US bond holder and of the ever-widening global financial kerfuffle.

The survey also brings to light the question of whether China’s gold reserves should be increased. Recent gold futures prices broke through US$1000/ounce, making gold the most outstanding asset in the financial turmoil. One economist thinks China’s current gold reserve of 600 tons is an unnecessary load and that the opportunity should be grasped to sell off a bunch of it at a good price.

21.4% of economists said that the gold reserve level was fine and leave it alone.

But 75.7% of the economists asked believe that China should increase its holdings of gold, with 48.6% opting for a slight increase while 27.1% think China should pile in.

At US$1000 an ounce?!

20 February 2009

China Invests in Production and Commodities While the US Feeds the Sharks


China is securing long term supplies of oil, aluminum, iron and other hard commodities at 'favorable prices for years to come.'

The United States is investing in increasingly worthless paper, insolvent banks, crony capitalist ponzi schemes, non-productive consumption, and enormous bonuses for Wall Street financiers.

After a visit to China a few years ago, touring their factories with workers quietly hunched over their worktables in fear, working whatever hours were offered in difficult conditions, Bill Gates observed that this was 'his kind of capitalism.'

The choices you make, what you choose to do or not to do, will pay significant returns, either good or ill, for your children and your children's children.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.


NY Times
With Cash to Spend, China Starts Investing Globally

By David Barboza
February 21, 2009

SHANGHAI — With the world suffering through a tight credit market, China has suddenly gone shopping.

Beijing said on Friday that one of its big state-owned banks, the China Development Bank, agreed to lend the Brazilian oil giant Petrobras $10 billion in exchange for sending China a long-term supply of oil.

That investment came after similar deals were signed this week with Russia and Venezuela, bringing China’s total oil investments this month to $41 billion
.

China’s biggest aluminum producer also agreed earlier this month to invest $19.5 billion in Australia’s Rio Tinto, one of the world’s biggest mining companies. And last Monday, the China Minmetals Corporation bid $1.7 billion to acquire Australia’s OZ Minerals, a huge zinc mining company...

China wants reliable supplies of crude oil, to fuel its growing transport sector; it needs iron ore for steel production, and copper and aluminum to build homes and consumer goods...

Analysts say China could continue to make deals for a variety of small oil and gas companies, mineral producers and mining firms.

This week, for instance, shares of the Australian miner Fortescue Metals Group rose after reports the company was in talks with China over a big investment to help the company expand.

In many cases, China has struck deals in countries that have access to large supplies of oil and minerals but where American and European countries are not well-positioned, like parts of Africa and the Middle East.

In one deal this week, China made an alliance with the government of Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela, who has denounced American leadership.

While the oil deals announced vary in terms, analysts say they ensure China a steady supply of oil for decades to come, sometimes at favorable prices....


18 February 2009

China Is Shopping the World for Miners and Commodities


As anyone who has looked into this knows, the producers always lag the commodities in any recovery, and base materials lag precious metals.

China is showing remarkable foresight in using its dollars to secure supplies of key industrial commodities and oil now.

Bloomberg
China Feasts on Miners as ‘Bank of Last Resort,’ as Metal Falls

By Helen Yuan and Rebecca Keenan

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Wuhan Iron & Steel Group and Jiangsu Shagang Group Co., China’s third- and fifth-largest steelmakers, are shopping for iron ore mining stakes in Australia and Brazil, executives said in interviews.

“We are evaluating and selecting” candidates in Australia and Brazil, said Shen Wenrong, Jiangsu-based Shagang’s chairman. “Going overseas is the government policy, so I believe we will get financing from Chinese banks.” Wuhan spokesman Bai Fang said his company is “looking for opportunities” amid lower acquisition costs for iron ore assets in Australia and “won’t rule out other countries.”

The world’s top metal user, China already has acquired $22 billion worth of commodity assets this year after a 70 percent drop in metal and oil since July ended a six-year boom in raw materials. With U.S. and Australian banks still hesitant to lend, Rio Tinto Group and OZ Minerals Ltd., laboring under combined debt of $40 billion, agreed this month to sell stakes to Aluminum Corp. of China and China Minmetals Corp., respectively.

“China has turned out to be the bank of last resort,” said Glyn Lawcock, head of resources research at UBS AG in Sydney. “China is a net importer of copper, bauxite, alumina, nickel, zircon, uranium. China is looking for ways to secure supply of these raw materials.”

Commodity acquisitions by China would put increasing amounts of the world’s raw materials under control of their biggest consumer and may allow it to influence prices. The investment by Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco as the state-owned entity is known, into Rio may bolster China’s bargaining power to set iron ore prices, China Iron and Steel Association said.

Steel Prices Surge

China’s plan to boost the economy with 4 trillion ($585 billion) yuan in spending on roads, bridges and other infrastructure has pushed up prices for steel and iron ore by as much as 37 percent and the cost of shipping commodities has more than doubled.

State-owned China National Petroleum Corp., the country’s largest oil producer, also is looking overseas in search of oil fields. China this week agreed to provide $25 billion of loans to Russia in return for oil supplies for the next 20 years.

Australia already has signaled concern that China is buying strategic assets on the cheap. Treasurer Wayne Swan last week tightened takeover laws when Chinalco announced its investment in London-based Rio Tinto, the world’s third-largest mining company.

Swan has the power to reject both that deal and Minmetals’ proposition with Melbourne-based OZ Minerals on national interest grounds. When Peter Costello was Australia’s treasurer in 2001, he blocked Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s bid for Woodside Petroleum Ltd. In 2004, Minmetals failed to reach an accord to buy Noranda Inc. amid objections from Canadian politicians.

Currency Reserves

China’s acquisition hunt is happening as the government ponders where to invest its currency reserves, which increased 27 percent in the past year to $1.95 trillion, about 29 percent of the world’s total. The country already owns $696.2 billion in Treasuries, about 12 percent of the U.S.’s outstanding marketable debt and has been stung by losses of more than $5 billion on $10.5 billion invested in Blackstone Group LP and Morgan Stanley in New York and TPG Inc. in Fort Worth, Texas, since mid-2007.

China has burnt its hands in the past buying liquid assets like Blackstone, but here they have the chance to buy tangible, useful assets,” said Professor Liu Baocheng at the University of International Business & Economics in Beijing. “There’s no point putting money in the bank or in deposits with low returns.”

China consumes over a third of the world’s aluminum output, a quarter of its copper production, almost a tenth of its oil and it accounts for more than half of the trading in iron ore. Last year, China bought $211 billion worth of iron ore, refined copper, crude oil and alumina....



17 February 2009

Russia and China Sign Oil Deal for the Next Twenty Years


Look for more deals like this to start happening between non-western nations, that do not involve anglo-american companies and exchanges.

The Economic Times
Russia, China sign $25 billion energy deal

17 Feb 2009, 1721 hrs IST, AGENCIES

MOSCOW: Russia and China signed a $25 billion energy deal in Beijing on Tuesday that will see China secure oil supplies from Russia for the next 20 years in return for loans, Russia's state pipeline monopoly Transneft said.

As part of the broad energy supply deal, China will lend $15 billion to Rosneft, Russia's state-owned oil major, and $10 billion to Transneft, a vital boost for energy companies as they struggle to raise capital amid straitened lending conditions and plunging oil prices.

In return, Russia promised to guarantee annual oil supply of 15 million tons (300,000 barrels per day) for 20 years to its energy-hungry neighbor.

Igor Dyomin, Transneft's press spokesman, confirmed the outline of the deal.

The signing ceremony marks an end to months of talks between the neighbors after negotiations broke down amid disagreements over interest rates and state guarantees.

Russian crude will be supplied through a long-delayed pipeline project agreed to late last year. The pipeline, which extends from western Siberia to the Pacific coast, is to be linked to China from the Siberian city of Skovorodino, 70 kilometers (44 miles) north of the Sino-Russian border.

07 January 2009

Is China Losing Its Taste for US Debt?


International Herald Tribune
U.S. debt is losing its appeal in China

By Keith Bradsher
Thursday, January 8, 2009

HONG KONG: China has bought more than $1 trillion in American debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home - a shift that could pose some challenges to the U.S. government in the near future but eventually may even produce salutary effects on the world economy.

At first glance, the declining Chinese appetite for U.S. debt - apparent in a series of hints from Chinese policy makers over the past two weeks, with official statistics due for release in the next few days - comes at an inopportune time. On Tuesday, the U.S. president-elect, Barack Obama, said Americans should get used to the prospect of "trillion-dollar deficits for years to come" as he seeks to finance an $800 billion economic stimulus package.

Normally, China would be the most avid taker of the debt required to pay for those deficits, mainly short-term Treasury securities. In the past five years, China has spent as much as one-seventh of its entire economic output on the purchase of foreign debt - largely U.S. Treasury bonds and American mortgage-backed securities.

But now, Beijing is seeking to pay for its own $600 billion economic stimulus - just as tax revenue falls sharply as the Chinese economy slows. Regulators have ordered banks to lend more money to small and midsize enterprises, many of which are struggling with slower exports, and Chinese bankers say they are being instructed to lend more to local governments to allow them to build new roads and other projects as part of the stimulus program.

"All the key drivers of China's Treasury purchases are disappearing," said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist in the Hong Kong office of the Royal Bank of Scotland. "There's a waning appetite for dollars and a waning appetite for Treasuries. And that complicates the outlook for interest rates." (The reason that China has been buying Treasuries is to sterilize the impact of their dollar trade surplus and to support their industrial exports policy. These are not 'investment.' - Jesse)

Fitch Ratings, the credit rating agency, forecasts that China's foreign reserves will increase by $177 billion this year - a large number, but down sharply from an estimated $415 billion last year.

In the United States, China's voracious demand for American bonds has helped keep interest rates low for borrowers ranging from the government to home buyers. Reduced Chinese enthusiasm for buying those bonds takes away some of this dampening effect. (And China will be under increasing pressue to maintain the peg of the yuan to the dollar at an artificially low rate despite their currency controls - Jesse)

But with U.S. interest rates still at very low levels after recent cuts to stimulate the economy, it is quite cheap for the U.S. Treasury to raise capital now. And there seem to be no shortage of buyers for Treasury bonds and other debt instruments: Prices for U.S. debt have soared as yields have declined. (Buying of the debt is heavily concentrated in safe haven buying domestically and a small number of foreign central banks. It is vulnerable at these prices - Jesse)

The long-term effects of this shift in capital flows - with China keeping more of its money home and the U.S. economy becoming less dependent on one lender - are unclear, but the phenomenon is something economists have said is long overdue. (The result will be few Chinese exports to the US and a stronger renminbi - Jesse)

What is clear is that the effect of the global downturn on China's finances has been drastic. As recently as 2007, tax revenue soared 32 percent, as factories across China ran flat out. But by November, government revenue had actually dropped 3 percent from a year earlier. That prompted Finance Minister Xie Xuren to warn Monday that 2009 would be "a difficult fiscal year." (China must stimulate their domestic economy and raise the median wage to encourage consumption of their own production - Jesse)

A senior central bank official mentioned last month that China's $1.9 trillion in foreign exchange reserves had actually begun to shrink. The reserves - mainly bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury and by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance companies - had been rising quickly ever since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. (There was a massive dumping of Agency debt by the foreign central banks, but a parabolic increase in Treasury purchases as we have previously documents - Jesse)

The strength of the dollar against the euro in the fourth quarter of last year contributed to slower growth in China's foreign reserves, said Fan Gang, an academic adviser to China's central bank, at a conference in Beijing on Tuesday. The central bank keeps track of the total value of its reserves in dollars and a weaker euro means that euro-denominated assets in those reserves are worth less in dollars, decreasing the total value of the reserves.

But the pace of China's accumulation of reserves began slowing in the third quarter along with the slowing of the Chinese economy, and appears to reflect much broader shifts.

China manages its reserves with considerable secrecy, but economists believe about 70 percent is in dollar-denominated assets and most of the rest in euros. The country has bankrolled its huge reserves by effectively requiring its entire banking sector, which is state-controlled, to hand nearly one-fifth of its deposits over to the central bank. The central bank, in turn, has used the money to buy foreign bonds.

Now the central bank is rapidly reducing this requirement and pushing banks to lend more money instead. (Good this is what they must do to encourage real capital investment that does not flee at the first whiff of a crisis - Jesse)

At the same time, three new trends mean that fewer dollars are pouring into China - and as fewer dollars flow into China, the government has fewer dollars to buy American bonds and help finance the U.S. trade and budget deficits.

The first, little-noticed trend is that the monthly pace of foreign direct investment in China has fallen by more than a third since the summer. Multinational companies are hoarding their cash and cutting back on the construction of factories. (FDI cuts and runs quickly in a crisis - Jesse)

The second trend is that the combination of a housing bust and a two-thirds fall in the mainland Chinese stock markets over the past year has resulted in moves by many overseas investors - and even some Chinese - to get money quietly out of the country. They are doing so despite China's fairly stringent currency controls, prompting the director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Hu Xiaolian, to warn in a statement Tuesday of "abnormal" capital flows across China's borders; she provided no statistics.

China's most porous border in terms of money flows is with Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous Chinese territory that has its own internationally convertible currency. So much Chinese money has poured into Hong Kong and been converted into Hong Kong dollars that the territory has had to issue billions of dollars' worth of extra currency in the past two months to meet the demand, shattering its previous records for such issuance.

A third trend that may further slow the flow of dollars into China is the reduction of its huge trade surpluses.

China's trade surplus set another record in November, at $40.1 billion. But because prices of Chinese imports like oil are starting to recover while demand remains weak for Chinese exports like consumer electronics, most economists expect China to run trade surpluses closer to $30 billion a month.

That would give China a sizable sum to invest abroad. But it would be considerably less than $50 billion a month that it poured into international financial markets - mainly U.S. bond markets - during the first half of 2008.

"The pace of foreign currency flows into China has to slow," and therefore the pace of China's reinvestment of that currency in foreign bonds will also slow, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, the chief investment officer at SJS Markets, a Hong Kong securities firm.

For a combination of financial and political reasons, the decline in China's purchases of dollar-denominated assets may be less steep than the overall decline in its purchases of foreign assets. (Their industrial policy of export to the US is the reason - Jesse)

Many mainland Chinese companies are keeping more of their dollar revenues overseas instead of bringing them home and converting them into yuan for deposit in Chinese banks. In essence, they would not show up on the central bank's books. So, overall Chinese demand for dollars would not be falling as much as the government's demand for dollars, said Sherman Chan, an economist in the Sydney office of Moody's Economy.com.

Treasury data from Washington suggest the Chinese government might be allocating a higher proportion of its foreign currency to the dollar in recent weeks and less to the euro. The data also suggest China is buying more Treasuries and fewer bonds from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Figures from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury point to a sharp increase in Chinese holdings of Treasury bonds in October. China passed Japan in September as the largest overseas holder of Treasuries, and took a commanding lead in October, with $652.9 billion compared to $585.5 billion for Japan.

But specialists in international money flows caution against relying too heavily on these statistics. They mostly count bonds that the Chinese government has bought directly, and exclude purchases made through banks in London and Hong Kong; with the financial crisis weakening many banks, the Chinese government has a strong incentive to buy more of its bonds directly.

The overall pace of foreign reserve accumulation in China seems to have slowed so much that even if all the remaining purchases were U.S. Treasuries, the Chinese government's overall purchases of dollar-denominated assets will have fallen, economists said.

But China's leadership is likely to avoid any complete halt to purchases of Treasuries for fear of looking like it is torpedoing the chances for a U.S. economic recovery at a vulnerable time, said Paul Tang, the chief economist at the Bank of East Asia here.

"This is a political decision," he said. "This is not purely an investment decision."



13 November 2008

China Expected to Shift Reserves into Commodities and Gold


"Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes..."


The Standard - Hong Kong
Gold rush
By Benjamin Scent
Friday, November 14, 2008

The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard.

Beijing is considering changing its asset allocations during the financial tsunami in order to build up gold reserves "in a big way,
" the source said.

China's fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves in US government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the US budget deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year.

The US government will fund the bailout by printing new money or issuing huge amounts of new debt, either of which will put severe pressure on the value of the greenback and on government bond yields. (Is it odd that almost everyone in the world EXCEPT Americans can see this coming? - Jesse)

The United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves valued at US$188.23 billion. China holds gold reserves of just 600 tonnes, worth only US$13.89 billion.

Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes, Tanrich Futures senior vice president Colleen Chow Yin-shan said.

Until now, the United States has had little choice but to issue massive amounts of debt to fund its deficits, and China has had little choice but to purchase it, as there are not many markets deep enough to absorb the mainland's US$30 billion to US$40 billion in monthly capital inflows.

Government officials involved in the management of China's reserves are beginning to see gold as an attractive place to park some of these funds. They see it as a real, tangible asset that will not lose its value over time - in stark contrast to the greenback, which is becoming more disconnected from economic realities as more bills are printed.

"It's the right time to increase the gold reserves, as the price is about US$710 to US$720 per ounce," said Wan Guoli, vice secretary general of the China Gold Association.

The International Monetary Fund has made reducing global payment imbalances one of its priorities in the aftermath of the financial tsunami.

"I think China probably will expand its strategic reserves into commodities during this downturn," said a Hong Kong-based strategist.

"China will continue to buy treasuries ... otherwise the system would get distorted," he said.

"But I think China will diversify its reserves."


03 November 2008

China and Russia Moving Away from the US Dollar?


The headline of this news piece greatly overstates the extent of any deal between Russia and China to stop using dollars. It seems to be a bilateral trading agreement. But it is credible since Russia and China have mutual trading interests that do not involve dollars; Russia is rich in resources and China is strong in manufacturing. Choosing to trade in the rouble makes sense, especially as China remains under currency controls.

It would be even more interesting if they chose some neutral currency such as the euro or even gold and silver since that would invite other countries to join in more readily, especially in the mideast and AsiaPac. We recall that both Russia and China have significant supplies of each of the metals. They might even fix a ratio of value between them, perhaps 16:1? There seems to be an historical precedent.

The problem becomes what should the value of any external standard be to the dollar? In the case of gold and silver, their prices are obviously far too low if they were to assume their roles as international trading currencies again. And the adjustment might prove painful for the three or four western banks that have been dominated the prices of several commodities, including the precious metals, at least on paper. It would be almost as if they had tied a noose around their necks and sold it to their rivals. But they would likely be made whole in cash dollar settlements.

Russia and China are not renouncing dollars overall. But watch for this to become a trend as the US continues to prove that it is no longer capable of managing the world's reserve currency on its own.

The month of November following an October dislocation in the financial markets such as we have just experienced has often proven to be filled with interesting developments.

Global Research
China, Russia, Belarus Renounce the US Dollar?

by Anatoly Gorev
RIA Novosti - 2008-10-30

The recent meeting between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, created a financial sensation. Wen said that the two nations could withstand the global financial crisis if they joined forces; Putin urged him to go farther and stop using U.S. dollars in Russian-Chinese settlements.

This idea is nothing new. Russia and China reached a "framework" agreement in November 2007, which was followed by China's similar agreement with Belarus.

Earlier this year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez turned against the dollar as well when they asked their OPEC partners to stop using the dollar for oil settlements. They argued that the "green" currency was no longer reliable and it was high time they look for a more stable and predictable alternative. (No one has followed them yet it should be noted, and the dollar has strengthened remarkably - Jesse)

Curiously, unlike the Ahmadinejad and Chavez appeal, Putin's proposal came as the dollar was on the rebound and even began pushing the euro. Economists even started talking in terms of a reversal of the global currency trends, rather than the temporary appreciation of the dollar.

Analysts predict that the dollar will regain its value in the next few months. They do not see anything which could hinder its steady growth.

Yet, Putin proposed that Russia and China stop using it as a settlement instrument. What is it - lack of confidence in the dollar's prospects or a political move? (The dollar has proven to be unstable, and the US preoccupied with its own internal troubles. The dollar is not a substitute for an external standard - Jesse)

Experts differ on this count. Igor Nikolayev, chief strategic analyst at FBK private auditing firm, sounded skeptical: "I think it was a political statement rather than an economic decision. There is a dominant public sentiment that the United States is the source of all evil, so let's stop using the dollar," he explained. (It was political, but it is also a warning and a preface to the November 15 meeting in Washington - Jesse)

One has to bear in mind, though, that some other currency will need to be found to replace the dollar for international settlements. China is unlikely to use the ruble, and Russia would be equally reluctant to accept the yuan. (The rouble would be more viable if it was backed by gold - Jesse)

"They could opt for the euro, but its future is uncertain, especially considering current developments on global financial markets. It is also unclear whether China would be happy to start using the euro while most of its international reserves are held in dollars," he added. (The euro has the same drawbacks as the dollar; it is too vulnerable to domestic policy priorities - Jesse)

There are more questions than answers here, Nikolayev concluded.

To be objective, one has to admit that other analysts are not as skeptical about the possibility of using other currency units between Russian and Chinese companies. (The use of gold and silver between these two countries seems logical if the trade can be 'balanced.' - Jesse)

Andrei Marinchenko, director general of the Kalita-Finance company, said the idea was quite realistic. Moreover, he thinks that the ruble stands a good chance of being selected as a reserve currency, primarily because the Chinese are disappointed in the dollar but aren't yet accustomed to the euro. (Yes but the rouble has a limited reach among other countries that do not wish to trade one empire for another - Jesse)

Only time will show who is right. But to stop using the dollar in Russian-Chinese settlements is too important a decision to make for purely political reasons - that much is obvious. (We're shocked it lasted as long as it did. It makes absolutely no sense to cede that much power to someone whose interests are not aligned with your own - Jesse)

Suppose we do it; what will be the implications for Russian businesses, how will the new financial and political reality affect their incomes and savings?

Marinchenko is convinced of a beneficial impact. According to Marinchenko, once the ruble is recognized as a settlement unit, it will enjoy growing demand with Chinese companies and individuals. The Russian currency will consequently grow stronger and more influential globally. (Its nice to dream, but there is an obvious flaw that needs to be resolved as we noted. Russia is no more stable nor trustworthy than the US for certain Physical gold and silver are beyond the control of a single country. - Jesse)

Russia will also become immune to many shocks from stock market meltdowns and won't have to fear future devaluation or revaluation of the ruble. It will happen because the role of the U.S. dollar, which has earned a reputation as an unstable and unreliable currency lately, will be much less important. (They are not able to do that now for certain. This highlights the risks of a single currency as the world's reserve currency. It is amazing that it has held together for as long as it has. - Jesse)