Are the Miners Underperforming the Metals?

In short, the answer is yes.  That seems to be the case to some degree.

The reasons for this are roughly as follow.

From past analysis, the mining sector seems to be roughly correlated 50 percent to the underlying metal, and 50 percent to the SP 500. Obviously this varies over time because of related factors, lags and correlations, but it is not a bad rule of thumb.

Right now the SP 500 is underperforming the metals. I am showing the SP 500 compared to gold, because silver is in such a powerful short squeeze that almost everything is underperforming it.

In addition, the correlation of the miners to the SP 500 has been a little more variable of late because of the 'risk on, risk off' sector rotations. The miners seem to be affected greatly by this.

I have noticed in the past that the miners, particularly the juniors, tend to get their biggest moves near the end of tops in legs of the metals moves, playing a sort of 'catch up.' I have not done any rigorous analysis on that lately.

But it is important to note that the reason why the metals are moving is a significant factor on the miners. If it is a risk off flight to safety, chances seem to be good that the miners will underperform. If it is more of an inflation trade, the miners may catch up in relative valuations and their leverage seems to work in one's favor.

To make things even a little more complicated, various pair trades and arbitrages come in and out of fashion amongst the speculating crowd in the hedge funds, who swing a big stick on short term pricing these days.  Long metals and short miners is a trade that temporarily distorts for example.

Someone just sent me this piece by my friend Dan Norcini and I think he makes some great points on the arb trades to which I allude above.

Again I have to caution that I have not done the kind of recent rigorous analysis on this that I have done in the past, because for my own purposes it is 'working' for me. Perhaps I shall have another look at it.

As a special note, I want to thank all the kind people who bring things to my attention by email. I cannot look at everything, and even if I may have seen it, I am always grateful, just a little less so perhaps if I have an active link to it on my site. lol.

I am busy making preparations for some special meals on the holiday and it has me on the run. Prime Rib, ham, turkey, fresh and smoked sausages, and all the sides, and even the children have been helping, learning along with the adults, with some special treats and cakes.

Try to remember the poor in these times, because many families are enduring their private hells and hardships, despite all the griping by those who imagine that the poor are lazy people living in luxury. I don't see many of them volunteering for that. If it were true, Goldman Sachs would be living in homeless shelters. People say, why doesn't God do something about this, why doesn't he help the poor and straighten these things out. Well, He did do something. He sent you.

Spring is in the air, and life is resilient. We are not in thrall to any morose doctrine, nor bound by hopeless despair. Let's remember that one of the early names for the Christians were 'the Easter people,' and hallelujah and our Father was their song. And this is our legacy, our life. Not the dried bones of those who are already dead, scuttling around in darkness, grasping for things and the lives of others, desperately trying to fill their emptiness. These are no great souls but the husks of men, destined to the trash, nameless, the leavings of Gehenna.

The tomb is empty and death is overthrown, and there is nothing for us there.

Why Are the Miners Underperforming The Metal?

Occasionally a reader asks, "Why are the miners lagging the performance of gold?"

My standard reply is that the mining stocks are both stocks and a store and source of the underlying bullion which is the basis of their business.

Past regression analysis which I had done a few years ago indicated that it was about a 50 - 50 split. Over time, an 'average' mining company will correlate roughly 50% to the SP 500 and 50% to the metal which is its predominant business. The lags due to anticipation and expectations are taken care of in the size your sample.

Just to do a quick check, since these things do sometimes change over time, I ran a quick comparison of the GDX Mining Index, GLD as a proxy for gold, and the SP 500.

I think the results since mid 2008 shown below seem to indicate that the miners, on average, are still a rough split between a stock and a store of wealth, with bullion exerting a bit more pull than in the past. This is probably an effect of the underperformance of the financials, and their heavy influence in the SP index. I would caution against using this in place of a genuine regression analysis. But its close enough to make the point that the mining stocks are, to some significant degree, a stock.



Note: Please read what I have said before snapping off a quick comment objecting to it on the basis of the stellar performance of your favorite junior or senior mining company.

I have done very excruciatingly details multivariate regression analysis of the price of bullion itself. and have published the results in the past on my 'old site' the Crossroads Cafe. That correlation does change. Perhaps I will find the time to take out the big spreadsheets and run them again.

The Correlation Between Gold and US Equities

The relationship between US equities and gold obviously changed around the middle of 2008.

But how has it changed? Has the correlation really reversed so dramatically?

Is this the result of the Fed's reflationary efforts? But has not the Fed does this many times in the past? What is the relationship with both of these markets with the US dollar, and that with the money supply?

Perhaps there is not a direct correlation but a relationship to other things that relate in common.

All good questions. Explanations will be coming, but we have not seen many that are any good. Most are simplistic and self-referential to the person's biases. So we will have to do it ourselves.