The artificial reflation aka short squeeze continues. It is centered on the financial stocks and in particular the SP futures. This is a classic Bob Rubin market fix technique from the 1990's. Don't fix the problems paint over them.
At times like these the stodgier Nasdaq100 performs the role of confirming moves up or down led by the SP 500. The broader indices are even more important.
This market is being slapped around in an effort to skin the overlevered small specs, so keep your positions small or even better, cash in your pocket. The banks are having a last gasp at manipulating nearly everything
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05 May 2009
Nasdaq 100 Futures Hourly Chart at 2:30 PM
02 April 2009
US Dollar (DX Index) Hourly Chart
Trichet disappointed today by not cutting the Euro interest rates more sharply to match the monetization of the US dollar by the Federal Reserve.
The US dollar hegemon is based on relativism. The monetization of a fiat currency does not matter so much if the most reasonable alternatives are also in decline. It will show up as an inflation in the price of real goods, but these can be managed in a financial services regime in the short term.
Do not confuse what the Fed and the Obama Administration are doing now with any sort of long term plan. Their bias is the same as corporate management: getting through the short term and looking as good as is possible in doing it.
Obama would like to shift to a longer term strategy, but this is difficult given the huge momentum of malinvestment that grips our national economy.
10 February 2009
17 December 2008
Nasdaq 100 March Futures Hourly Chart
Here is a simplified screenshot of one of the futures charts I watch during the day. This one is for the Nasdaq 100 futures basis March.
I am not showing the other trends I watch on this chart for the sake of simplicity, but you will get the idea if you look at the nightly updates.
The trends with support and resistance may be a little clearer when one looks at them this way.
For short term traders I would recommend the AlphaTrends website which is listed on the left under educational links. Brian is a very good technical daytrader.