Showing posts with label Paper Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paper Gold. Show all posts

10 May 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Currency Wars

 

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further.  A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.  Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it.  It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded.  The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down.  So was the U.K."

Edward 'Steady Eddie' George, Governor Bank of England 1993-2003, from Reg Howe v. BIS, JPM et al.

"The general hypothesis I have put forward over a period of time at this café is that with the spike in the price of gold up to $1900, the central banks of the West became greatly concerned, and opted for a lower price, and a more orderly rise.   And so the price of gold was smacked down into a trading range between $1540 and $1780 through the various price and market operations of some central and bullion banks in what we can think of as a gold pool.

As you may recall, the great sea change was that central banks turned from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, slowly over a ten year period from 2000-2010 approximately.   This change of policy was not uniform, but driven largely from the emerging and re-emerging nations.  It ought not to surprise us.  No fiat currency has survived for so long in historical terms, and even fewer as the world's reserve currency, unless backed by an unassailable empire.  They will fall to Triffin's Dilemma, and the decay of power to self-serving and short-sighted corruption.

Forces similar to those that are working against the EU monetary union, without a comprehensive political union, are working against the dollar global reserve currency, on a much larger and slower paced scale.  This is why a global currency issued and controlled by one central entity tends to presume (and aspire to) a one world governance, or at least a cohesive governance of a rather large piece of it. It is not incidental to their financial goals.

The gold pool can rehypothecate and leverage physical gold by multiples into paper, and outright create it with naked short selling.  And they can sell this paper in bulk at whatever they wish in the markets which they control.  And they can use positional advantage and their media to bully boy anyone who dares to question this into silence.  But they cannot print gold bullion and deliver it to Asia (et al.), which quite frankly does not care what they say.

In general this is what is referred to at the divergence between the paper and physical gold markets.   It is what happens when 'semi-official' forces endeavor to set an artificially low price in a market that involves some physical commodity which is in a somewhat limited supply.   It tends to become more limited as a result.

But the supply of paper gold is not limited in the short term, especially where things like position limits and leverage are given the wink and a nod behind a wall of opaque obfuscation.  

So this is why I think things will unravel in a manner similar to the London Gold Pool's operation which sought to set and maintain an artificially low price.   How exactly this will unravel is a matter of much conjecture.  I doubt it will break at the source of the paper gold, given the power the insiders have over the rules and information there.  Rather, there is more likely to be a strain at some physical delivery source that will cause the current pool to back up the price higher to some more sustainable level.  What that will be I cannot say.

What is driving this current dynamic is what is called the 'currency war,' which is shorthand for a difference of opinion amongst the world powers over the existing global currency trade regime."

Jesse, 22 January 2014

“Crime, once exposed, has no refuge but in audacity.”

Tacitus

"Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

Alan Greenspan, Congressional Testimony, July 24, 1998

Paper gold is a derivative, an often non-collateralized claim that may not be available from a counterparty in the present moment.  In the NY-London markets gold is estimated to be traded at a leverage of over 100 to 1, with the individual paper chits called gold having a very ephemeral attachment to any underlying physical bullion, bearing a significant burden of unallocated risk.

As noted fund manager Kyle Bass observed, 'The [gold] exchange is a fractional reserve exchange, and they think that price will solve everything.'

By its very nature a fiat currency is a projection of political and economic force.  And as it expands beyond reasonable bounds, confidence and volition may waver, and force and fraud and compulsion will increase.

False flags of war can be economic policy (too often a euphemism for greed and lust for power) as well as diplomacy by other means.

Sometimes when things are happening that don't seem to make sense, it may be a lack of a general understanding of the bigger picture, the players and the issues and motivations behind the scenes, that is the cause of our confusion.

And often normal, hard-working human beings are not able to fully comprehend the sort of petty vanity and greed that motivates the hubris of prominent servants of the darkness of the world.

Stocks were rallying for whatever rationale this morning after a fairly predictable consumer price dataset this morning.

The Dollar plunged on the news as you can see from the first chart below.

Sometimes looking at things cross markets is the only way to see what is happening.

Producer price index tomorrow.

There are geopolitical flash points are the world, any of which could provoke a serious exogenous event effect on the world financial markets.

Some of this may be by intent.  But most often it can be explained by pride, greed, and lack of foresight, which are often close companions in human political arenas and worldly affairs.

For we wrestle not against flesh and blood alone, but against principalities and powers, and the rulers of darkness of this world, and wickedness in high places.

Recklessly wicked and destructive things, which the normal human being finds it almost inconceivable to consider.

Have a pleasant evening.



07 July 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Paper Chase - Jobs Number: Desperately Seeking Goldilocks

 

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further.  A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.  Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it.  It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded.  The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down.  So was the U.K."

Eddie George, Bank of England, From Reg Howe v. BIS, JPM et al.


"Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

Alan Greenspan, Congressional Testimony, July 24, 1998


Stocks managed to stage a relief rally and hold the gains into the close.

The Dollar chopped sideways around the high 106 handle.

Gold and silver managed a bounce off the deep low of yesterday.

Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow morning can move the markets based on perceptions of the performance of the economy and its effect on the Fed's decisions.

As we can see from the Comptroller of the Currency chart below, derivative bets on precious metals held by US banks exploded in notional value.

What could go wrong?

Have a pleasant evening.



12 January 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Credibility Trap de Luxe - Are You Not Entertained?

 

"The central bank gold lending market, centered in London, is probably the most secretive financial market in the world, with very little known about its transactions and market structure.  The gold lending market’s opacity is further supported by regulators who protect the secrecy of the central banks, and mainstream financial news agencies whose editorial policies seem to forbid any market investigations, in-depth or otherwise.

It is in the gold lending market that the central banks of the world lend out their gold holdings to commercial bullion banks, where the physical gold is sold and shipped out, and where the central banks then claim to hold interest-earning ‘gold deposits’ with the bullion banks.  These gold-deposits (which are merely a claim on a bullion bank) then mostly roll over short-term, passed around indefinitely between the clubby LBMA cartel of bullion banks, in a totally opaque behind the scenes network. 

The physical gold bars lent out are long gone to Switzerland and the Far East, and the central banks then deceptively claim that they still hold the gold on their balance sheets when in fact all they have is a liability to the bullion banks.   In the middle of this market sits the Bank of England, offering gold custody and storage to other central banks (in the vaults under the Bank of England headquarters in London) and offering gold accounts to the bullion banks concerned." 

Ronan Manly, French central bank and JP Morgan team up to boost Gold Lending 

 

“If you shut up truth and bury it under the ground, it will but grow, and gather to itself such explosive power that the day it bursts through it will blow up everything in its way.” 

Émile Zola

 

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further.  A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.   Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it.   It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded.  The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down.   So was the U.K." 

Sir Edward George, Governor Bank of England in conversation with Nicholas J. Morrell, of Lonmin Plc, 1999

 

"What is offensive is that they lie, and worship their own lying." 

Fyodor Dostoevsky, Crime and Punishment

 

The Dollar took a dive today, and lost its grip on the 94 handle.

Gold and silver rallied.

Stocks managed to edge higher in another volatile day.

The VIX dropped.

The mispricing of risk is profound.

Few people love the truth and are willing to serve it.  It has no place in their hearts.

They serve false gods, con men, and themselves, and live in fantasies of superior knowledge and power.

They may become a narcissist, or the banal follower of narcissists.

In any case they have no love in them, no way to love or be loved.

Pride and passionate distractions fill their silence and fragile emptiness.

And it seems that there is little we can do for them except to pray. 

Have a pleasant evening.


 


 


21 October 2018

Weekly Gold and Silver Flows In Funds and ETFs


Flowing, from West to East.

We seem to have indications of a durable bottom being formed.

Let's see if that trend continues.




04 October 2015

Do Not Look at These Charts Showing Registered 'Deliverable' Gold Bullion In New York


“The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small. It is nearly nil."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929

Here are a few charts that show the rather striking decline in 'registered' gold, that is gold available for those standing for delivery, in the Comex warehouses.

'Standing' by the way means standing around and waiting for someone to choose to fulfill your request for your contract to be fulfilled with actual bullion before the cut off date.

You can see from the first chart that the likelihood of someone actually standing for delivery and receiving bullion has never been less at The Bucket Shop.  Real metal is unfashionable amongst our financial sophisticates.

As for delivery and withdrawal of bullion, it is getting stronger and stronger in the East.  Second chart.  What can one say at such embarrassing behaviour?  What a bunch of rubes!

The shills and shrills for the bullion banks will tell you, in hair-splitting and often misleading detail that none of this means anything.    And you better listen to them because they are the ascended masters of the universe.

All of these categories and procedures at The Bucket Shop are meaningless.   And the holders of these millions of dollars in bullion often change the designations of their metal in new but meaningless ways in their quest to baffle the world.  And provide makework for their brokers and clerical staff.

The Bucket Shop is not likely to fall into a hard default.  You cannot lose when you own the game and set the rules, and can always force settlement.

Try not to underestimate the skillfulness and determination of market manipulators.  And especially their shamelessness. They hate it when you refer to the obviousness of their schemes. Like rigging almost every global market, and selling tailor made toxic instruments which they later bet against.  And getting caught, paying a wristslap fine to their cronies, and then claiming that they are the real victims of zealous prosecutors and your envy at their well-deserved success.

So nothing to see here.  Better not to look at it or ask any questions. About anything. Just leave your money and move along.












08 September 2015

'Claims Per Deliverable Ounce' Likely Soars to over 200:1 as JPM Pulls Another Large Tranche


JP Morgan, who as I shared last month tends to move large amounts of gold into the registered (deliverable) category on the Comex just in the nick of time, took another huge tranche of gold out of that category last Friday.

Registered (deliverable) gold is now down 202,000 troy ounces or a little over 6 tonnes,  a level which we have not seen there since Nick Laird started keeping track of the Comex warehouses in 2003.

A quick calculation that awaits the updated open interest figure shows that the 'claims per deliverable ounce' has now likely soared to over 200:1.  We have never seen a ratio that high.

I will put up the 'official calculation' from Nick when the official number becomes available.  We might not see the ratio climb if there has been a plunge in open interest, however unlikely that might seem.

Not just considering the Comex, which I consider to be a atavistic pricing mechanism, a conjunction of several things trouble me in the light of Ronan Manly's second article in his current series.

He does a meticulous estimate that indicates that the levels of unencumbered gold in the LBMA, which some of us have come to call 'the float' of physical bullion, are now so low that he calls it 'a game of musical chairs' to cover the unallocated gold accounts.

You may read Ronan's entire article here.

Things being what they are, I am now persuaded that 'the float' is tight enough so that the probability of a 'break' or dislocation in the physical bullion market is high enough to warrant some extra caution. Not panic, but caution, at least until the situation clarifies, particular with an eye to the historically significant month of December.

The other item that greatly concerned me is Jim Rickards assertion that in this type of situation the price of gold is not likely to go up gradually, but may suddenly rise step-wise, almost overnight, by more than a hundred dollars or so per step.  You may watch it here.

I do not claim to have the contacts or pull that some may have or claim to have.  But I have now seen enough to think that in terms of insurance and conservative investments that caution is warranted, now, rather than later.

So, IF you are an investor, not a short term trader, and are holding some percentage of gold in your portfolio as insurance, you may wish to reconsider any arrangements that you may have in which you cannot exercise reasonable control over your possession of bullion which you have purchased.

This is what I believe Kyle Bass referred to as fiduciary caution.

Particularly at risk of a forced cash settlement would be any leveraged or unallocated holdings with an indeterminate counterparty risk, or what some people refer to as 'paper gold.'

I am not saying that there will be a hard default, in terms of outright confiscation in a bankruptcy court, not at all.  Although that may happen.

But I would consider carefully any arrangements that offer guarantees or assurances that could be satisfied with a cash settlement at a price to be determined by someone else without your consent.  As we saw in 1933, they settled at one 'official price' and then allowed the price to resume some 40% higher.

If you are a short term trader, do what you will, but be mindful of your leverage, and take uncovered short positions at your own risk.  And if covered, carefully consider your counterparty risks, because the bigger players will be lawyered up and looking for patsies and victims.  Again, a hard lesson from MFGlobal.

This market may likely turn extremely volatile, even to the extent of a big down move followed by a sizable move higher.  This is how these jokers roll.  When the going gets tough, they tend to keep doubling down and running a bravura bluff.   This was the story of 'the London Whale.'

In the meanwhile, we will have to bear up as best we can with this ridiculous lack of transparency and secrecy and sound regulatory oversight in public markets in the age of crony capitalism.

I have included the latest silver Comex chart as well.   I have to admit that I do not feel I have the same grasp of silver that I hope to achieve in gold.   There seems to be a steady bleed in the inventories, and one huge difference is that with silver there is no great central pool of it to cover short term gaps in the physical markets through leasing as there is with gold.

So, I will keep an eye on silver, because the premiums there are acting more oddly on the retail level than gold is, and its market structure is such that a festering problem can become a big and obtrusive problem rather quickly, and the central banks would be in a poor position to do anything about it.

I would tend to exercise the same caution with silver investments as insurance as I would with gold.  And so I am.