Gold, Silver, and the Mining Index with the SP 500 for the 'Quad Witch' This Week

This is one of the big four 'quad witch' weeks for US equities, and Goldman is bring out some IPO's including the CBOE. So as previously said, we'll look for shenanigans on light volumes as the trolley dodgers try to stay out of the way of intermittent headline risks and keep that perfect trading score going.

When frauds like the US financial markets become this obvious and blatant, it is frequently a sign that they are nearing the endgame, or perhaps more properly, an implosion. But never poke a cornered skunk, you have to smoke them out.

Gold



Silver Daily Chart



Silver Weekly Chart



HUI Mining Index - Weekly Chart

Some might notice a trend on this chart. That trend would not hold up in a general stock market crash.



US Long Bond

Big Daddy looks about read to take a dump.



SP 500 Sept Futures Hourly chart



SP 500 Longer Term Cash Chart



SP 500 Correlated to Bernanke's Quantitative Easing Program



Chart Courtesy of James Turk

SP Futures Hourly Chart at Noon

The "W bottom" worked, and equities blew through the Pivot this morning on 'better than expected' housing starts, and a general consensus among the financial spokesmen that the recession is over, although with risks to the downside if stimulus and more importantly monetary support from the Fed, is withdrawn from the financial system too quickly.

Today is option expiration in August. Our high confidence target of 1021 has been met on the chart. Now the market must prove that it can consolidate and move higher.

Our view is that the recession is not over, and that the Fed and Treasury have merely papered over the substantial problems that remain, while alleviating the short term credit crunch issues with absolutely massive injections of liquidity directly into the banks.

Having said all that, stocks can rise without regard to any fundamentals for some time if there is enough will and capital to make it happen. Treasury and the Fed wish this badly because rising stocks will quickly make people forget their mistakes and uneven policy reactions.

Can they do it? We will see. The result *should* be another financial asset bubble at best, a lingering zombie economy very likely at worst.

Should they fail, probably off an exogenous event which can absorb the blame, then the market will fold like an old accordion because there is little commitment underneath it, only paper.

SP Futures Hourly Chart

I think that most would agree that the US equity futures have put in some kind of a top, both in the short and intermediate term which is not shown here.

The question now is, 'Are they in the process of putting in some kind of bottom, or is the trend of the decline merely moderating?'

I have highlighted with horizontal lines a few levels of support and resistance that most traders are watching carefully.

It was not bullish that Alcoa was unable to hold its gains today from its 'good news.'

Goldman Sachs reports next week. That may give some spark to the financial sector, but Goldman is really a 'one-off.' One off what I am not quite sure, but whatever it is I think it says much more about them and their secret trading software and access to information than the economy or anything else.

SP Futures Hourly Charts: Frauds R' US

Do not get in front of this rally on the short side. It appears to be the end of month tape painting, but the primary short term trend is still up.

If we break key supports it may drop quickly.

This 'could be' an official reflation, supported by the Treasury and the Fed, such as we saw from the bottom of the market in 2003 that provoked the housing bubble. But the economy is now so crippled that we doubt they can sustain this latest attempt to cover over the rotting Potemkin economy with paper and paint.

These fellows leading us are like a more sophisticated and polished version of Bernie Madoff, full of smooth talk, impressive results and short term gains that lead to worse problems and staggering losses.

How many times can we be fooled? How many times will the world fall for this fraudulent printing of wealth?

You are not wrong; you are not alone in your thoughts. Madness is madnesss, no matter how popular it may be, appearing attractive, clever, well-presented, and enticing in the short term.

SP Futures Hourly Chart

Although there are many ways to play a market intraday, as indicated by the short term trendlines in red, the US equity markets are in a downtrend that is rather difficult to dismiss.

When will it end?

We are not sure what the catalyst will be, but at least an intermediate bottom will be reached at some point. In the meanwhile short term relief rallies and short squeeze attempts, such as we saw this morning, will occur on an almost daily basis.

SP Futures Hourly Chart

Here's looking at you, kid.

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3:30

Postscript After the Close:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished January down 8.84% on the month. Previously, the worst January for the Dow had been that of 1916, when it fell 8.64%. Friday, the Dow dropped 148.15 points to 8000.86 after briefly dipping below the 8000 mark. The Dow has fallen five straight months and in 12 of the last 15.

Today is the last trading day for January. If we go out near the current lows of the day, this will be the worst January for US equities in the last 92 years.

There will be no sustained recovery in the economy until the median wage improves. Allowing the banks to lend again to support consumption is a complete waste of capital. The purpose of not allowing bank failures, as in the 1930's, is not to save the banks, but to preserve the funds of private savers.

We should back the pensions and the savings of individuals one hundred percent. Government support should not be given to banks that are insolvent. They should be restructured first, and then recapitalized.